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First I'll respond assuming there is no price cut. It won't "die" but it sure will sell horribly. Right now it's doing about 50k weekly and it would only slightly increase over the summer. The holidays will come not a moment too soon boosting sales to an ok level. As the new year starts again however will be when things get ugly. Hardly anyone who wants a Vita would be "convinced" during that time and sales will go bellow 10k weekly. It will dwindle.

Luckily that won't happen! All signs point to a price cut soon. It is following a very similar path to the 3DS right before the price cut. My money is on Gamescon, maybe TGS, to announce it.