mrstickball said:
Through this coming generation, online services and products are going to be a huge factor in who is the champion. We've gone from having online services being almost a non-starter in the PS2/GC/Xbox era, to 75-80% of consoles having online access for PS3/X360 users. That number is only going to go higher next generation. Therefore, hardware manufacturers must make every effort to ensure their online strategy is very strong, and very aggressive. We've seen Microsoft arguably own this generation with Xbox Live - to a point its made them wildly profitable, despite taking huge blunders in other sectors. Sony has caught up significantly by offering its monetized PS+ system, and attempted to offer every piece of content available to users as well - music, movies, apps, ect. Likewise, video game companies have utilized the online marketplace to great effect. AAA games have made millions from downloadable content, thanks to a combination of users' willingness to pay more for expanded content, and increased profit margins from digital distribution. For example, a developer/publisher will earn about 40% more on the same dollar if the game or content is purchased digitally than if its released via the physical, retail route. Because of the profitability, and emergence of other types of gaming and monetization types, online titles will be very, very large. Maybe not as important as the top-tier AAA titles, but they are going to play a huge part in deciding the winner next generation. All of those statements are predicated on users being able to easily access and download the content for their consoles. If a console has insufficient space for the content, then it requires the user to purchase additional products to obtain the content. That is something that not all users are willing to do. Since this is likely the case, it will hurt the WiiU. Over the span of the generation, it will stifle what kind of content is pushed to the WiiU, as developers will not see the same profit margins or attach rates for content or games on the WIiU, which will cause them to abandon the platform, just like they did in regards to the Wii.
In a few examples, we've seen online/downloadable strategy as huge successes for non-gaming hardware, such as the Amazon Kindle. Amazon sold the hardware at a huge loss, knowing that they'd recoup the loss due to their share of downloadable revenue. The result? They took a weak platform (Android Tablets), and dominated the space overnight. Microsoft is attempting the same thing with their $99 Xbox 360s, and I believe that will be a huge success for them. So much, that they are likely going to do the same thing with the next Xbox. If and when that happens, Nintendo may not be able to respond quick enough, because the value propostion won't be there, because Nintendo will likely lack the online infrastructure and hard disk space for the strategy. In the end, the lack of hard drive space is, in my mind, a glaring sign of how Nintendo is going to treat next-gen gaming. That is, they don't view digital/online gaming as a major part of console gaming. That will be their achilles heel for the WiiU, and will be disasterous for them. |
The problem I have with this theory is that it is directly contradicted by the data provided by the current generation of consoles. If what you've said was true then the leader in digital distribution this generation should be Sony, whose lowest-capacity SKU has 20 GB of space, rather than Microsoft, which has sold tens of millions of units with under one GB of space or just 4 GB of space: 1/40th and 1/5th of the lowest PS3 model, respectively (and that model has been unavailable for years now!), and nowehere near sufficient for DLC/downloaded titles.
But the data point to the 360 being the current leader in digital distribution this generation. This is especially notable since, of the three current generation platforms, the 360 is the most difficult and expensive to have its HDD expanded. So either digital distribution remains less important than it is being portrayed above, or the public is willing and able to go through a greater hoop than plugging in a cheap SD card/external HDD. I personally suspect it's a combination of the two.
And if push comes to shove, and initial data points to your fears being correct, it would be a simple measure to ship later units with an included SD card/external HDD. Especially since every 3DS includes an SD card from day one. I honestly don't see the problem, market-wise.
