Microsoft IMO is poised to be the no.1 company next generation, they have both the hardcore audience and the casual crowd now too with Kinect.
That said, Nintendo can take Sony if they are smart and aggressive with Wii U. They have a 1 year head start, likely a cheaper machine, stronger exclusive franchises, and are much more stable financially (Sony is in massive debt, Nintendo had a rough fiscal year, but still have $10+ billion in the bank to spend).
The Vita being much more powerful than the 3DS hasn't stopped the 3DS from kicking the Vita's ass every which way. We're reaching a point where better and better graphics are becoming less important, though if Nintendo was smart IMO they'd future proof the Wii U by making it upgradable.
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