oni-link said:
What are you basing that assumption on? I personally think it'll do worse as time goes by. The 3DS already has an established userbase (~18M) and people hardly buy two dedicated handhelds as the smartphone replaced the second one people usually keep in their pockets. The fact that next generation hardware is just around the corner; the Vita will soon be forgotten by both gamers and developers alike. Sony really should have released this thing a year ago.
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If you say that "people hardly buy 2 dedicated handhelds", then it would mean that from the 220M gamers that have dedicated gaming handhelds (150M DS + 70M PSP), at least 170M (if not more) are the ones that would only buy 1 handheld gaming device. So in other words, are you trying to tell me that because the 3DS has 18M units sold, the other 152M gamers have 0% chance to buy a PSVITA in the next 5 years?? 
The PSVITA right now is having the "3DS launch disease", and it will be "cured" when more AAA games hit the console. That is why I said that after E3 the PSVITA will begin to sell a lot better.
