Is this the last generation of graphical increases for consoles?

[ddobson]

I agree with some others here that the law of diminishing returns is a factor in graphics improvement. Visual technology will continue to improve, but investment will probably start to move in other directions. Look at 2-D graphics or game audio today for an analogy -- can they really get much better than they are? Game graphics certainly have come a long way -- compare Night Driver to Pole Position to Gran Turismo's recent iterations. But how much further can they go? Cost-effective yet meaningful 3-D improvement will eventually start to max out, and I would wager that will happen before anyone pulls off real-time ray-tracing at 1080p. I would also point out that, right now, EVERY in-game approximation of a human being still looks weirdly stiff and unrealistic running around -- stopping on a dime, turning in place, etc.; cut-scenes aside, humans look bad in games. This may never change because more realistic animation wouldn't necessarily be more fun -- in fact, more realistic walking/running/shooting-big-gun physics would likely weaken and dilute player control. Given that, I don't think true realism is what anyone WANTS, regardless of whether the technology can deliver it someday. I think game publishers and developers are also running up against a genuine cost barrier in terms of how much "reality" one can afford to construct. The ability afforded by increased processing power to use procedural textures (infinitely scalable, reduced "hand-painting" required) will help in this area, but it still takes human time to design and model in-game worlds and objects. And the cost-reduction tricks used in film production (facades, matte paintings) are hard to get away with in a game. If game production costs start to approach movie production costs (consider the effort put into CG special effects, which so far is always some years ahead of what a console can do in real-time) but the sales base hasn't grown to accommodate that kind of investment, something will have to give. I suspect that physics, AI, and control will begin to dominate the technology focus as time goes on. All of the current gen machines have foreseeable room to improve in these areas. Graphics will still continue to improve next generation, but the Wii may be establishing that it's okay to let technology lag behind the PC a bit for cost reasons in this area. Processing power and innovative hardware/algorithms may become more critical than pixel-pushing. Who knows, but it will be fun to see what happens!