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If they pack-in 'Wii U Sports', and launch with NSMBMii, Pikmin 3, and Retro's game (whether it's DKCR 2 or Metroid Prime 4), they'll be more than fine. It'll sell like hotcakes.

But a lot of people forget, though... Wii originally started with a bang not because everyone really wanted to play Wii Sports, but because it launched with Twilight Princess. TP sold like 1:1 with Wii at launch in 2006. So, while an evergreen casual-focused game like Wii Sports 2 or whatever is a good idea for long-tail sales, they NEED a big AAA game from at least one of their franchises, otherwise it will be 3DS launch all over again.