In hindsight, this prediction made sense if one could assume Nintendo kept 3DS at the same price.
It still seemed extremely unlikely because I am confident that Mario and Pokemon were and still are 100% powerful enough IPs alone to keep Nintendo in the lead. BUT, if sitting at the same price, Vita absolutely had a running chance.
HOWEVER, I would have never expected Nintendo to let their handheld compete head-to-head with the Vita. It was entirely obvious that Nintendo would cut price and make sure that 3DS was financially a better choice. If I cared to dig up a year-old post proving that, I would.
But anyways, things right now look impossible for Vita to do well unless Sony does the same and cuts price significantly. Or else it'll pull a PS3 and start selling really well in a few years when it develops a large catalogue of games and drops price.
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