I don't like Microsoft the most, but I think they are going to win. They have both the hardcore demographic and have made huge inroads into the casual/mom-approved gaming set with Kinect/updated 360 interface.
I also think the 360 is going nowhere, they are going to drop it to $199.99 w/Kinect + game for the next fall and Nintendo is going to have their hands full with that.
I think with XBox 720, they can afford to outspec Sony (Sony just doesn't have the money to compete in losses, while MS still has a monstrous cash pile) ... so I think MS is going to go for the kill and try to push Sony out of the industry while making the 720 the defacto "hardcore" platform for it's first few years.
The only wildcard I see is Apple. If they were ever to release a dedicated game-centric controller that could work with Apple TV + iMac + iPad ... that could be a game changer.
