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kain_kusanagi on 02 March 2012
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archbrix said:
kain_kusanagi said:
archbrix said:

Bottom line:  Worst case scenario for Nintendo, even if NeXtBox and PS4 were to arrive and eclipse WiiU, it will still outperform the Dreamcast by a very large margin and almost certainly still be a profitable endeavor for Nintendo in the end.  Therefore, comparing it to the Dreamcast in its purest sense is inaccurate.

You seem to think I'm claiming the Wii U will fail like the Dreamcast. That was never my point. Sega was on the edge before the Dreamcast launched and clearly Nintendo is not. My comparisons are not to show the inevitable death of the Wii U or Nintendo as a console maker. My point has only been that the success the Wii saw will almost certainly not follow the Wii U.In my opinion the Wii U will do fine, but see only the same level of success as the Gamecube.

OK, point taken @above.

We'll have to agree to disagree on some points, but I'll meet you half way on others:

I certainly don't expect the majority of PS360 owners to run out and buy WiiU just for 3rd party games that look a bit better and run smoother.  But consider that many HD twins owners, like many PS2 owners, are not brand loyal and go where the hype is.  These are the customers Nintendo needs to appeal to, not so much the hardcore Halo and God of War fans.  And while a person buying WiiU won't re-buy Batman AC that they already played a year ago, they might buy all future 3rd party games on their new console, similar to how new blu-ray player owners won't re-buy their entire movie library, but purchase all future content on blu-ray.

As far as the "soccer mom" point and the "new controller phenomenon" point, I believe they are related.  Grandparents who purchased the Wii aren't going to care anything about 1080p HD game graphics, but if Nintendo can create compelling games using the tablet that are family friendly experiences, they stand a much better chance at grabbing that market again.  This is where they really must think outside the box and come up with things similar to what they had playable at E3, but even better; picture the kids and mom playing a game with their Wii remotes while dad directly affects the tv display with the touch screen.  And they need to include this kind of software with the system.  Point being that they need games that do for the tablet controller what Wii Sports did for the Wii remote.  And remember, tablets and touch interfaces are "in" right now.  Sales (and possibly market reactions from Sony and Microsoft) will ultimately show if Nintendo was indeed successful.

The one point I am in major disagreeance with you on is that WiiU will only see the success of the Gamecube.  If you mean mainly only appealing to Nintendo fans, well, that remains to be seen.  But if you mean only 21m+ units sold lifetime, I can't imagine any of the big three selling that little ever again unless they royally screw up...


I guess we really are going to have to agree to disagree. I just don't think Nintendo will be able to convince those soccer moms and elderly people to buy another video game system. Nintendo was able to appeal to them once with revolutionary motion controls, but I don't think adding a touch screen is going to matter. Those kinds of people either never plan on playing a game again, or they are still happy with the only game they ever bought. Wii Sports/Resort, the one that came with their Wii. Their kids might ask for a Wii U, but that's always the case with kids and new systems. I'm talking about the people who never played a game in their life and bought a Wii for the fun party motion controls and promise of fun exercise with Wii Fit. Those people aren't going to buy a Wii U or a PS4 or Xbox Next. For them the fad is over. For us it's a not a fad it's what we love. But for the soccer moms that pushed the Wii beyond anyone's expectations it was a fad and that fad has passed.

Now as for convincing the hardcore, I'm not sure it's possible. It used to be you could catch gamer's attention with some cool games and flashy graphics. Now gamers are married to platforms that hold their gamer score and trophies. It's going to be very difficult for Nintendo to convince even non-loyal  360 gamers to forgo a 3rd party game's achievement points for slightly better graphics. I mean they can play the game on their system of choice, bolster their gamer score/trophy and wait for their next system that will continue transfer their account with their score. I personally don't give a rats ass about achievements and trophies, but I seem to be in the minority now.

That's why I think the Wii U will see the same level of success as the Gamecube. I don't mean the same sales, I mean the same proportional success to its competitors. MS and Sony are going to continue to fight over the majority of market share and Nintendo, without it's soccer moms, will have a hard time breaking into that struggle. We could see a an even split between the three, but I don't expect to see Nintendo in 1st place next gen.