Thousands = Millions: A console sales rule of thumb

[ddobson]

I doubt any system sells in as linear a fashion as this simple model assumes. But it's an interesting quick-and-dirty way to look at it. Actually if we look at historical data (much easier to do now thanks to this site), there aren't a lot of huge ramp-ups and ramp-downs in most consoles' lifespans -- they usually launch at one rate that may be relatively low or high, then settle into a gradually declining trend that's relatively linear. At least we don't often see the kinds of "game X will sure move consoles!" spike effects that a lot of people seem to expect. A similar rule of thumb I sometimes use to make rough predictions is to look at current sales ratios and translate to lifetime "catchup" terms. If one system is outselling another 4:1, and the generation lasts 6 years, then it will take the lower-selling system its entire lifespan to match the first 18 months of the higher-selling system's sales. You can't use these kinds of linear assumptions to do sophisticated market analysis or make accurate predictions -- but it's a useful way to look at trends. Is one system currently on track to pass another, or not? It's a way of deriving a useful week-to-week trend analysis in one's head without having to do a lot of math.