Year 1, 5 and 6 (Alligned Launch) Analysis - Updated

[Michael-5]

Just some random info here, HD consoles are really showing trend breaking patterns. Both the PS3 and X360 have peak sales in their 5th year (where traditionally most consoles peaked after 1-3 years, with the DS and PSP peaking in 4).

Year 5 Analysis

DS is always king, in it's 5th full year on retail it sold 28.88 million units. PS2 comes second at 18.78 million (recorded this before VGC removed the PS2 section). However what's interesting is that PS3 AND 360 both beat Wii selling 14.04, 13.4, and 11.83 million units respectively. Wii has been showing strong signs of collapsing sales, and it's likely PS3 and 360 will continually outsell the Wii now with and without alligned sales. For reference PSP sold 10.4 units and GBA (which also had collapsing sales after only 4 years) sold 5.55 million units.

So Good Job PS360 for showing peak sales in their 5th year, and DS for just ridiculous sales!

Year 6 Analysis

Again, DS is king with 20.84 million sales, however this would be the first year DS sales have been noticably lower (down nearly 30% YoY). What's interesting is 360 nearly outsold the PS2 in the alligned 6th year where 360 just missed by 320k in sales. PS2 sold 13.66 million, and 360 sold 13.34 million. For reference PSP sold 9.24 million, and GBA sold a mere 2.3 million. PS2 and DS were the only systems to drop significant sales where PSP and 360 held strong (PS3 and Wii are entering their 6th year now).

Now the question is, what will PS3 and Wii sell in 2012? From what I read VGC analysts, and GT Bonus Round people only predict a maximum of 12 million sales for PS3 and 9 million or less for Wii. If this is the case, then this will mark the first year 360 has outsold the PS3 with an alligned launch. This would be pro 360 as it would suggest that comparing PS3 and 360 sales via alligned launch is a terrible way to compare sales as the HD market is heavily dependant on third party support and the general migration from PS2 to PS360.

So good job 360 for nearly taking the best selling home console in its 6th year of sales.

Year 1 Sales Analysis

Basically 3DS is owning, with 14.42 million sales. 10 months on the market in Japan, and 9 Worldwide and it's sold more units then the DS in it's first full year PLUS the two extra holiday months it sold it. This is largely due to an $80 price cut and the release of two Major titles (Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3D Land).

For comparision, PS2 sold 5.61 million units with a full year on the market in Japan and two months worldwide. PS2 did sell 16.07 million units in it's second full year (first full year WW) on the market, but 3DS will likely top it as 3DS is tracking above the DS wich sold 20.56 million units in it's second full year on the market.

Since most consoles release in November, it;s unfair to directly compare 3DS 1st year sales with other consoles, so for reference I will mention second year (first full year) sales here unless the console released early in the year like 3DS. From greatest to worst, Wii sold 16.39 million, PS2 sold 16.07 million, GBA did 14.89 million (and 13.13 million in it;s first half year), DS sold 10.93 million, PSP sold 9.6 million (In it's first year, released in March WW, December in Japan, much like the PSV), PS3 sold 7.7 million, and 360 sold 6.73 million.

Kudos to 3DS, Wii, GBA, and PS2 for very strong openings to console sales (DS didn't explode until it's second full year on the market).

Annual Summary Graph

Alligned Launch Annual Summary Graph