I both agree and disagree ...
When you look at the kind of people who are the most likely to be early adopters, they have owned the systems they will buy this generation for multiple years and most of the games they will buy for these systems over the next few years will be sequels to games they have already played on these systems (possibly multiple times before). Whether they admit it or not, this generation has gotten pretty stale for them; and, while they're probably looking forward to their third Mass Effect game or fourth Modern Warfare game, they would rapidly get drawn into the new experience that might be possible in the next generation.
With that said, this may be one of the most gradual generation transitions in my lifetime because a large portion (possibly the majority) of games for the first few years will likely be released for both generations due to high development costs. Even though the differences between the games on each platform could be pretty dramatic the steady flow of games could keep the platforms viable for years after their successor is released.
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