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Reach is better than Halo 3 imo. More content, better campaign, improved forge, firefight, and multiplayer is just better and more well polished. The only reason Halo has gone slightly down in popularity is COD. It's not a horrible thing because now most the casual players horde COD, while true Halo fans will stick with Halo. Halo's just not the "it" multiplayer game like it use to be during Halo 2 and 3 days, but that doesn't make it a worse game.

Like most folks said, almost every Halo after Halo 3 has been a spinoff(to even some extent Reach), but everyone will see with Halo 4 that the franchise is still very much popular. It just needed a proper sequel.