Hardware
360 - 13mil. It will be down massively most of the year, but have another record holiday period, and be a full cable box replacement by the end of 2012. At least one US cable company will give you a 360 rather then a traditional cable box when you suscribe to their service by the end of 2012.
PS3 - 12.5mil. Sales will increase in Europe but massively decreases in US and Japan, as sony has yet to announce any big American oriented games for 2012, and PSPVita will get some killer software in Japan making the country even more handheld oriented. Will initially be ahead of 360 but start losing weekly when microsoft officially cuts 360 price. Holidays will make up a bigger chunk of hdtwin sales than ever before which will benefit the 360, and ps3 will not get another official pricecut in 2012.
Wii- 9mil. Sales will collapse everywhere for most of the year. It will hold up best in Europe, where it is still clealy the "gift for your kid" console choice over the holidays.
3DS- 20mil. Until Vita begins to get compelling software for the Japanese, the 3DS will continue to account for significantly more than 50% of the entire Japanese gaming market. The device will get a remade version, and more big titles which will greaty boost nonholiday sales in western markets. I do not think it will have amuch bigger holiday season than it did in 2011, It will just sell far better in the other 10 months of the year.
PSVita- 8mil. The PSVita will rebound nicely in Japan once developers start publishing games that the Japanese are actually interested in, The PSP is still very well supported in Japan and once those developers graduate to developing for the Vita, a lot of customers will be happy to upgrade. I think the lack of support the PSP recieved these past two years in western markets will hurt PSVita initially. Many people won't but it because they figure sony won't support it so well.
Software
Halo 4- 4.5mil first week. I think halo anniversary's low sales will be a blessing for halo 4. Halo Reach had to convince 6million people who just bought ODST and were possibly disappointed that they need to have faith in another halo. There haven't been too many people who bought a halo game this year, and considering the backlash against Call of Duty is much bigger than it ever has been, Halo easily has the ability to take some of those disgruntled customers, who might have never even played a halo game.
Twisted Metal- 2mil Lifetime. This is a very American oriented games. All the twisted metal games have done much better in America than Europe. The ps3 will allow this game to do well in Europe as well, as a lot of titles formerly only popular in the USA have done well in Europe as well this gen. I expect it to sell 1.2mil in USA, 600k in Europe, 200k in other territories, when all is said and done.
Grand Theft Auto IV- 9.5mil first week split almost evenly. Grand Theft Auto is the only title popular enough on multiple consoles to potentially beat a Call of Duty. I think the ps3 version will beat the ps3 version of the next CoD by a bigger margin than the 360 version of the next CoD will beat 360 version of GTA. This will be best selling game next year, but considering how activision was able to make a 20mil selling Call of Duty so many years in a role, that victory won't really be a big one.
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