I though the Xbox had little chance when Star Wars was delayed. Then again, when they didn't match the price cut, then even less of a chance when the new 'talk to the dashboard' update didn't make it out before Thanksgiving.
At Thanksgiving, US Citizens get together and eat turkey and watch TV together. I thought missing that window with the new dashboard cut them out of much free advertising from seeing it in action at friends and family. It also marks the 'official' beginning of the USA shopping holiday season (Which is why they moved thanksgiving from July.)
However, it's amazingly close. It is exciting to see it come down to the finish, and that means next year they can have a price cut and chug along some more. I'm curious to see the x720/ps4, but with things going like they are it might still be a while.
Exciting photo finish!