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Why do people always forget to include the Gears of War Triple Packs sales when talking about Gears of War 1 & 2 sales. 

http://gamrreview.vgchartz.com/game/49777/gears-of-war-triple-pack/

That means Gears 1 is actually at 5.88m + 0.24m = 6.12m and Gears 2 is at 6.11m + 0.24m = 6.35m.

Uncharted 1 = 3.99m vs Gears 1 = 6.12m.  2.13m lead for Gears 1.

Uncharted 2 = 5.28m vs Gears 2 = 6.35m.  1.07m lead for Gears 2.

I think Gears 3 will end up at around 7.5 million if it isn't bundled and 8.5 million if it is bundled after a year like Fable III which has already sold around 1m due to bundles. Uncharted 3 will end up at about 5.75 - 6.75 million, it all depends on bundles and I don't think the legs will be quite as good as UC2 in the long run. Uncharted 3 has only been selling really well recently because it's had huge price cuts (I just bought it for £20 brand new last week from Dixons, that deals finished now btw but if you search around there's good deals everywhere!) and it's being bundled heavily, unlike Gears 3 which isn't being bundled at all from all the shops I've searched and it has hardly had a price cut anywhere other than Amazon.

So the answer to your question is no, Gears 3 will outsell UC3 handily. At the end of the day, Gears 3 would have made much more money for M$ than UC3 will make for Sony because Gears 3 sold many more units at a higher price.