It has a shot at coming close - but a lot will depend on the length of this gen and what else comes out. For ages Uncharted 2 was THE exclusive for PS3, so it had very good legs. U3 might see similar legs but it might not. Also other releases or a shift of attention to new consoles could curtail its legs as well.
Gears 3 will probably be the most front loaded gears, so while it will also sell the most due to franchise growth it's not going to sell as much as the initial 10 weeks might suggest. The evidence does imply it will see much weaker tail.
So in terms of unit sales Uncharted 3 does have a shot on paper - but it probably remains more likely Gears 3 will sell more LTD. When all is said and done each franchise will have had some pretty damn impressive sales - unit wise. Gears is probably more profitable though as being front loaded does mean more sales at full price vs reduced price sales.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
