Numbers That MS Needs To Pull To Tie The PS3 For 2011. And Why I Think It Is Now Impossible.

[Michael-5]

thismeintiel said:

Michael-5 said:
With USA data in, I think 360 will still be ahead of PS3 weekly sales by 100k or so. If MS manages to hold this, the PS3-360 gap will shrink to 600k by Christmas. This is exactly what I thought would happen at the start of the thread.

Anyone think I'm wrong?

That sounds about right.  Then with the last week, Sony should add ~80K or so to the gap again, making it just under 700K.  A significant gap, but lower than my original prediction (if I'm recalling correctly, it was 800K-1M).

Well to be fair, 360 could sell as much as 150k a week better then PS3 WW. Looking at EMEAA Charts, PS3 is only sold 60k better then 360 last week (No Black Friday in Europe), and it sold 30k better then 360 in Japan. This week 360 sold 230k better then PS3 in Americas, so I think it's very possible that 360 could outsell PS3 on 3/4 upcoming weeks by 100-150k.

Final Fantasy XIII-2 week in Japan, we will probably see a smaller margin lead for 360, maybe 50-100k.

Adding all those numbers together, that means 360 could close the gap by as much as 350-550k, making the annual gap between 450-650k in favor os PS3.

For the week directly after christmas, anything can happen. Last year the difference was in favor of PS3 by 100k, but there were 360 shortages as early as the week before christmas. If MS can supply demand, 360 could outsell PS3 for that week.

In Fact, before VGC was aware of the shortages, they had 360 estimated to sell just under 100k more units then PS3 that week. Data was adjusted later.

Regardless, a 400-800k gap is likely, and basically exactly what I predicted, and not much off from you.

Let's see if MS can prove us wrong.