Pachter: Redesigned 360 coming Late 2012

[Reasonable]

kowenicki said:

Reasonable said:
Oh oh, I'm going to have to agree with Patcher here.

360 is still doing very well and MW3 shows that, despite the overall HW/SW slump in the industry the 360 can continue to sell strongly and support huge games sales.

My view is:

1) it is not MS's problem overall sales are down - that's down to the drop in Wii and Nintendo SW sales. MS has no obligation to release a new console to try and fill a gap left by a competitor.

2) MS doesn't need a new console to compete or remain relevant. The 360 and PS3 still define HD gaming and the Wii U is both an unknown and I suspect a fairly minimal threat. I don't see the millions on Live/360 switching to Wii U for CoD or Halo or online gaming anytime soon (ditto for PSN/PS3 owners as an aside)

3) A new console wouldn't help MS grow against PS3. MS is doing well in the Western market. It's in more diverse, less online mature markets that its struggling vs PS3. A new, more expensive model with even more sophisticated online requirements is no help in these regions IMHO and if anything would hurt MS growth outside US/UK and Europe and gift Sony/PS3 with more growth in those markets

4) while there is a hardcore on 360 who do want new console they are unlikely to jump ship for Sony/Nintendo anyway and will wait with MS. They want even bigger, better Gears, Halo, etc. and won't jump ship.

Personally I see little gain for MS in the big picture releasing a new console anytime soon. They are doing well and are in a relatively unthreatened position in their key markets. I expect MS to consolidate and entrench in all markets they can before releasing a new console Q4 2013 to launch with a holiday spike with Halo 5 and possibly a new Gears coming during 2014.

The PS2 was still the top selling console on a weekly basis when the PS3 launched...  that part of his reasoning is irrelevant and misguided.

MS have to stay ahead of the curve to keep growing, particularly if they want to retain market share in Europe.  They could also run consoles together, who says the 360 has to be discontinued just because of the nextbox?    I see a very cheap 360 continuing on sale for a while to come, regardless of the next console.

I disagree because of the position of PS2 at PS3 launch vs 360 relative to a new Xbox and also the fact I beleive Sony launched PS3 earlier than they would have preferred due to 360 as well as the difference this gen with the cushion of online service focused customers.

The PS2 was super dominant and Sony only really needed PS3 to rush to market (before they had blu-ray diode production smoothed out) to coutner the threat of 360 in US and Europe.  Also PS2 while super dominant wasn't equiped to remotely support the growing demand for online experiences nor the growing threat of Live in West.  However due to their broader market penetration Sony knew they could more easily position PS2 in more emerging markets while introducing PS3 in the West.  Obviously, mainly due to the higher costs due to BR and the lack of exclusive titles, things didn't go to plan for Sony and the launch was very fragmented although PS2 continued to sell fine particularly in newer markets.

The 360 isn't support dominant but it is deeply entrenched in key markets where nothing on the horizon is an obvious threat.   Lauching too early for MS risks carrying over the core but leaving behind the broader audience due to costs.  It's also pretty clear that while certain developers would happily transition many are still making it clear they do not want a new round of HD HW that would require even more costly game development.  I think a new Xbox launching too soon would risk the same issue as Sony had with the PS3 - not enough of the core moving over, too high a cost in market and relatively slow penetration without the backup of additional markets to sell 360 in.

I don't see any need for MS to launch before latter half of 2013.  I do think MS will maintain 360 at the same time post launch for a while as well.

Course MS could see it different.  Time will tell - it always does.