| ryuzaki57 said: The timing you mention doesn't include typical Wii weeks either : we know that at the end of the year casual newbies run to buy the system for their kiddies for Xmas. If you want a fair comparison then rendez-vous on January 1st with total SW divided by 52, and we'll see who's on top... |
A moving average would be effective to determine trends, actually.
But let's just do a bit of simple estimation. Right now, the 2011 sales data says that, to date, 360 and PS3 have each sold roughly 95 million units of software in 2011 (360 ahead of PS3 by about 800,000), while the Wii is at about 82 million.
Supposing that the systems see a similar sales pattern for December as they did last year, with Wii numbers scaled down by, say, 20%... then we could expect the Wii to gain somewhere of the order of 15 million over 360 (slightly more over PS3). So it's very likely that the three systems will be almost identical in software sales.
Which is remarkable in and of itself, really, given that this is the list of notable Wii titles released this year: Just Dance 3, LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars, LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean: The Video Game, Rhythm Heaven Wii, Dragon Quest 25 Shuunen Kinin: Famicom & Super Famicom Dragon Quest I-II-III (Japan only), Kirby's Return to Dreamland, Wii Play Motion... and then Country Dance, at less than 300,000 copies. And, of course, Skyward Sword, which hasn't been released, yet.
And note that I haven't accounted for Skyward Sword sales in my estimation - the closest equivalent from last year was Donkey Kong Country Returns, which didn't quite make 4 million in 2010. Zelda could easily outperform this.
On a side note, your use of the phrase "casual newbies" is highly elitist, and not at all in a good way. Indeed, a large majority of Call of Duty gamers are no less casual than those who will buy Just Dance 3.
