You might be right by calendar years, but in absolute terms, the period from September 1 2009 - Aug 31 2010 or so saw Sony sell 2.3m PS3s in Japan within 52 weeks (PS3 Slim, FFXIII lift, 10,000 Yen price cut). I don't see PS3 ever matching that again in Japan. Same thing happened in the US - PS3 did 4.9m in the US from Sept 2009 - Aug 2010, and has since fallen to 4.3-4.5m in a 12 month period.
I have a hunch that Vita will eat up a fair bit of PS3 hw support going forward in Japan as well. Some will prefer to have a PS3 in their hands rather than in their homes which will lessen the need to purchase a PS3 by quite a bit from Dec 2011 onwards.
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