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I think 2012 is too early, I find it very unlikely that they would release the console in under a year from announcement, and we would have heard more leaks about games in development for it if that were the case. There is a decent chance of it being announced, but I think March 2013 at the earliest for its launch, to ensure that by Christmas, they can definitely have CoD, Halo and Forza (as well as something from the Gears team probably)