I put it at a 10% chance in my Sony article - just went live. Take a look at previous holiday quarter figures:
Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Est
X360 4.3m 6.0m 5.2m 6.3m 5.5m? (Q3 2011 was down significantly)
PS3 4.9m 4.5m 6.5m 6.3m 6.7m? (Q3 2011 was slightly up)
If that was the difference you'd have a gap of under 1m which would be made up by June 2012, possibly by March 2012
Were the difference to be made up by year end you'd need something like 7m / 5m in favor of PS3 - I can't really see X360 shipments under 5m or PS3 over 7m in the Dec quarter given how the US / Europe split over Christmas.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
