Here is my rationale; despite the early drop in sales of the 3DS, this came as the result of two factors: A price too high, and an early launch period. Now we are sitting on 4.8 million 3DS sales with ~220K per week, and the holiday season is about a month and a half away. At this point, all other fast selling systems had gone through a holiday season.
For some comparison purposes, the 4 most successful systems to date:
1. PS2 - 15 months
2. DS - 12.5 months
3. GBA - 9 months
4. Wii - 8 months
With very likely no shortages in sight, and several very heavy hitting titles coming up including Mario Kart 3D and Mario and Sonic (flagship titles of Nintendo and Sega). I expect it to break 10 million in early to mid December based on current sales (~220K) vs traditional Nintendo sales spikes in November (about 3.5X) So that means roughly 3.85 million sold. If sales stay solid through October, and then follow the trend of 3.5X in November, then it will be in the first 2 weeks of December that 3DS breaks 10 million. This will mean that it broke it in 8.5 months (Since it launched the end of March), between GBA and Wii.
On a side note, now might be a good time purchase Nintendo stock. The stock is currently devalued based on failings of the 3DS and declining DS and Wii sales. They are ignoring 3DS's current success, the time period, and the lineup of games. When the system takes off this Holiday season, it is very likely to turn heads back to Nintendo. On top of that, expect big announcements about the Wii U and Pokemon 3DS next year, which will also bump up stock value. The value could very well increase 150% between now and early 2013.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
