Is Nintendo focusing to much on Japan?

[Joelcool7]

archbrix said:
Sorry, Joelcool, but Rol has pretty much nailed it in several posts now.

Securing Monster Hunter is a veritable critical blow move by 3DS against Vita. MH didn't just sell a lot of copies... it also sold a lot of PSPs, and it sold a lot of people on PSP having a hugely popular franchise exclusively. Nintendo has managed to steal an enormous amount of Vita's potential thunder by obtaining the one essential franchise that PSP had against DS. Now 3DS will have MH and Pokemon.

GTA, while hugely popular on consoles, didn't sell the PSP in the west remotely close to what MH did for PSP in Japan, which is the most prolific market for hand helds. I'm not saying GTA wouldn't be a nice addition to the 3DS; the more games the better. But the console hits that you continue to cite (AC for example) are not what made the DS conquer the PSP even in the west, much less Japan.

Monster Hunter is a critical blow to the Vita in Japan. Japan had Sony with a stronger share of the market then North America. However PSP sales were still higher in North America. Monster Hunter did not push hardware in Sony's biggest market, include the rest of the world and Monster Hunter contributed very little to Sony's success outside of Japan.

As I have said multiple times the Japanese market is the smallest for Nintendo and it was also for Sony. While MH definitly helped Sony secure a larger marketshare in Japan it did not help at all globally. Not saying Japan isn't important but it makes up less then one third of Sony's market.

Infact Sony sold more units in the EMEAA then America or even Japan.

Also I agree the titles I mention AC for example did not make DS conquer Sony in the west or Japan. Neither did MH help Sony conquer the west. It did squat outside of Japan.

But the AC that was coming to 3DS was not a cheap cash in, it was being developed internally by some of the best developers UbiSoft has. Unlike the two DS games that were developed cheaply by GameLoft. Also if you note AC on PSP sold over a million copies in the west which made it more influential on American and European sales then Monster Hunter did.

You also have to realize that GTA also sold more copies in the West then Monster Hunter did in Japan. You may be right Monster Hunter did wonders for Japan, but without GTA you can bet Sony would have lost about 5-6 million in hardware sales in the west. Also look at software sales for PSP in Japan they do not match up with software sales in the rest of the world.

Software sales for PSP show that of the top 50 titles on PSP EMEAA lead the pack with 40.54 million copies while America was second most important with 36.55 million in software sales with Japan trailing at a distant third with only 17.85 million. Of that Monster Hunter made up 11.38 million.

So yes if MH4 succeeds and Sony doesn't replace Monster Hunter with another big game, they can consider Japan lost. However with no third party support in the West. Nintendo will have a much harder time fighting Sony off there.

If you read the thread as me saying Japan was not important you misread it. I said that the West is the larger market and more important then Japan. I said if Nintendo was going to invest so much efforts into Japan it should do likewise in the rest of the world.

Say Monster Hunter does amazing, Nintendo crushes Sony in Japan and gains about a 90% market share there. What about the west? Nintendo's software sales for their top fifty titles show that EMEAA and America are at a virtual tie at 115 million copies. The West's market is far larger then Japan's.

Now of course we all know that Nintendo's software dominates in all regions. However in the west , American software is dominant. Check the EMEAA records and the American records of software sales and you will note that western publishers dominate those markets. Those markets also make up a majority of Nintendo's software sales.

So yes I think a domination in Japan is possible with all this Japanese support. But what about the West? Look at Vita's market that they are targetting? They are aiming at their largest market EMEAA and America second. With the titles that are popular in the west. Nintendo might be able to strike Sony down in Japan by compromising the West. But Sony might make tons of gains in the Western market that weren't present last generation.

Although I guess Nintendo's headquarters are in Japan and dominating Japan is a personal issue. Nintendo's titles will no doubt sell well in North America as well. However they could loose marketshare in North America and software sales, right now with 3DS selling at a loss its software sales that will help Nintendo return to profitability.

Lets face it even with Nintendo dominant in Japan, the software that sells in Nintendo's largest markets (America/EMEAA) is western made. So a cut in software sales in the West followed by a cut in hardware sales. Is not a wise decision.

Nintendo is simply trading market share in the west for market share in Japan. If you look at it as how much damage it will do to Sony then its obviously going to do alot of damage. If you look at it as how much hardware will a few Japanese titles push and how much software profit will be generated your looking at far worse outcome.

You can argue all you want that Monster Hunter is a more important title then AC, your right it is. But the west is more important to Nintendo's profit margins then Japan is. So you have to wonder is Monster Hunter more important to western sales then western support? Because AC isn't the only title that has been cancelled, several titles from other publishers like Activision were also dropped.

Focusing entirely on Japan and not at all on North America is very dangerous. Sony could totally capatalize on this get an exclusive Assassins Creed, CoD and Grand Theft Auto and you will see them increase share in North America. Will Sony win the war loosing Japan and such, no. Will there market share globally fall? Possibly but if Sony played its cards right and got alot of western support they could probably hold on!

Don't believe me check the stats on software sales in America or EMEAA for PSP. You'll note that western titles dominate. If Nintendo wants to crush Sony globally the way it intends to crush them in Japan. Then they need to focus heavily on the West.

Of course through all this research I have come to realize, if Nintendo can get MH3G and MH4 exclusively to 3DS they will crush Japan. If Nintendo gets exclusive RockStar support and the support of the publishers they already had for DS. Sony doesn't have a chance in hell anywhere on the globe.

Vita will be dead if Nintendo gives equal attention to the west.