Worldwide UP - August 27, 2011

[Michael-5]

thismeintiel said:

Michael-5 said:
Patchner will be right. If MS doesn't price cut, PS3 will outsell 360 in the holidays.

I expect PS3 sales to continue following the Wii trend and drop in sales next week (despite whatever boost Madden brings). PS3's growth is slowing down faster then Wii's and it had Monster Hunter to help it a bit in Japan. I feel this is the temporary PS3 peak, and sales will drop 10% next week (not 20% because of Madden).

360 I expect to be level next week, or maybe a small 5% boost due to madden.

3DS will remain above 200k, but might drop another 20%. I hope it stabilizes high.

The rest, no major changes.

I hope MS is smart and cuts the 360's price soon. I think they will cut it, but they are just waiting for the holidays to start.

WW, PS3 will most likely outsell 360, anyway.  Even, if MS cuts the 250 GB to $249, its going to have less of an effect than the $249 PS3, as there is already a $199 360 SKU.  And this time around, the cheaper SKU is the exact same console as the top of the line 360 (except for the larger HDD), which wasn't the case with the older 360.  The only way I could see the 360 outselling the PS3 (though not by too much), is if they cut both models by $50, as well as cut Kinect by ~$75 coupled with a huge ad campaign for both cuts.

And you have to think, 360 is going to mostly see great sales in the US and UK, with some alright sales in the rest of EMEAA, for the holidays.  Its almost completely dead in Japan.  However, PS3 will see great sales in Japan and the rest of EMEAA, while in the US and UK, the sales are going to still be pretty good.  PS3 isn't really dead anywhere.

360 typically sells better during the holiday season, mainly because of it's strong US demograph. So if 360 got a price cut just matching PS3's, it's extremly unlikely that PS3 outsells the 360 in the last 4 months of the year.

However I think the 360 will get a $50 price cut, ontop of a $30 Kinect price cut. So a 4GB Kinect 360 will cost $220-$230, and a 320GB 360 will cost $250. This probably won't happen, MS already announced pricing on limited ed 360 models for Novemeber, and there is no cut in price.

Holidays boost sales more in English speaking countries, and 360 is vastly more popular in UK and Americas (by a factor of nearly 2 to 1!). Don't forget that too. It's also more then UK and US, there is Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. Also UK and US are the two biggest home console regions in the world (More home consoles are sold in UK then Japan). So if the biggest regions see the biggest % jump and already have a base over 1.5 to 1 in size, then obviously 360 gets a bigger boost during the holidays, and if you watch past trends this has generally been the rule.