Can PS3 still win this generation and outsell Wii?

[FinalEvangelion]

Metallicube said:

Carl2291 said:

Metallicube said:

A few key points here... Some people can't seem to grasp the magnitude of the distance between Wii and its competitors. They tend to be very shortsighted and look at nothing beyond the weekly sales. I think they must just assume when they look at the weekly sales that when PS3 is starting to get closer to Wii in weekly sales, that somehow it is gaining ground on it.. Guess what, it's NOT. In fact, for EVERY console more that the Wii sells, it is only distancing itself even FURTHER, and that becomes further ground that PS3 must make up at some time in the future. Only for a very small portion of this console's lifecylce has the PS3 even begun to outsell the Wii at all (for maybe 6 months of this year), and even then, the amount the PS3 has made up is merely a drop in the bucket.PS3 still has not caught the Xbox 360, which is only a couple million ahead. Now add 28 million more to that.. See how impossible it suddenly looks?

Wii had stretches of SEVERAL weeks where it outsold PS3 by several hundred thousands. Sometimes even MILLIONS more during the holidays. For PS3 to even have a chance to catch Wii, it needs weeks like this. So when/how exactly is this going to happen? What games will move these kinds of massive numbers? Sure, the PS3 is not done yet, and still has a few weapons in its arsenel, but people seem to forget that Wii does as well. These include more bundles, a couple more $50 price drops, a possible console redesign, and lets not forget Zelda, and Dragon Quest for Japan. Now yes, Nintendo has fumbled the ball in handling the Wii in terms of games, marketting, and overall philosophy. But that simply doesn't matter at this point, because of the vast amount of distance separating it from the PS3, and the fact that the Wii is still not don't selling - even if the amount sold from this point won't be very much.

The third factor I'd like to point out that the PS3 has going against is the expanded markets, which latched on to the Wii. Here we're talking lapsed gamers, grandmas, soccer moms, etc.. For PS3 to recieve Wii-like sales, it will eventually need to tap into these audiences. Now be honest, do you really see PS3 ever appealing to grandpa, 5 year old Timmy, or your mother? Not very likely.

I'm just trying to put things into perspective here. If you remove the Sony glasses, it is pretty apparent how impossible it is, not only for PS3 to catch Wii, but to even get close..

The one main thing people are saying though, is that for it to happen... The Wii will have to be discontinued or simply hit a very, very low point in sales when Wii U arrives. It's entirely possible for the PS3 to hit 100 - 105 Million if Sony do things right over the next few Years, and it's entirely possible for the Wii to not hit anywhere higher than 105 Million if the current decline continues or simply gets worse.

I will never understand why everybody believes PS3 to be this ageless console that will keep constantly selling. Why is this? They never say... Is it because of its horsepower? History should tell you by now that horsepower has NOTHING to do with a consoles success or longevity. Is it the greater room for further pricedrops? Pricedrops have NEVER given longterm momemtum to console sales, only short spikes in sales. Without the games to back it up, there is no point to a pricedrop. PS3 needs GAMES to push that second 50 million, and unlike the first 5 years, it now has to work against the natural decline in sales from the aging of the console. So what are all these games that are going to carry PS3 for another 50 million units?

 

Developing nations - hence why the PS2 can sell 1.4 m in one quarter 11 years after its launch. 

 

While I don't think the PS3 will top the Wii, I think it will close the gap significantly.  Right now, Sony has a better handle than their competition in selling to the developing countries.  As the price of the PS3 decreases, the more those in the developing countries will upgrade from the PS2.