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enrageorange on 01 August 2011
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BHR-3 said:
ioi said:
BHR-3 said:

uncharted 2 190k PO - 420k week 1 which went on to do over 2M before the year ended (despite the forums beliefs)

mag 250k PO (and was climbing even after the demo released)- 200k week 1

mw2 ps3 750k PO -1.7M week 1

cod bo again 860k PO - 2.35M week 1 which went on to outdo Halo reachs global week 1 after at least 2 adjustments  (same as above)

 

i believe this could be true "Maybe people who shop at the stores we track have different buying habits to yourself or to what you believe the population to have"


I don't really see an "issue" with any of the examples you listed above?

Edit: Seece already commented on these points.

I never said "pre-orders are directly proportional to week one sales" I said they are a good indicator. They need to be taken in context. Around the holidays, sales are spready more evenly over numerous weeks - look at week 1-2, 2-3 drops. Same holds with pre-orders vs week one sales. A title like Black Ops, MW3 will sell a higher proportion of sales in the remainder of week 1, week 2 etc compared to day 1 sales than a typical non-holiday title. Similarly, it will sell more on day 1 as a proportion of pre-orders than a non-holiday title.

It is all about context - you guys all love to deal with absolutes and don't seem to understand the concept of context. Compare week 1 to month 1 sales for holiday and non-holiday titles for a start. Do the same for different genres. Do the same across different platforms.

for mag i find it hard to believe that people canceled there PO last minute PO here showed gains in the final weeks pre release aswell has medicore reviews being released on web proir to release as well as a demo being available way before any of these things happening

for BO again hard for me to believe only 100K more than MW2 with final PO considering COD was still growing as a franchise and i still believe is today, BO complete shattered MW2 sales 1st week month, LT ect even on other sales trackers.   this site also had it under tracked during the beginning of it release, now the way all this looks to me and its solely my opinion is that b/c cod bo was not WW2 era (meaning it wouldnt sell better or as good as MW2) was not modern era and is made by treyarc there would be some uncertainty to its sales for some people, the same can be said for uncharted 2 b/c the 1st one only had like what less than 2M sold prior to launch all the perfect reviews wernt released it would be very difficult for the average person to know the final outcome

regardless, who am i do disagree with anyones beliefs as i dont rely on charts, mathematical formulas, sales trackers, past history ect. for my beliefs so many could say that my beliefs are flawed and i know how that feels and its not good so i would want others to have the same feeling, i only believe in what the stars above me show, every one has there beliefs and the ones in here are just VGCs

im curious to know from you ioi from what you know and described above what do think COD MW3 on PS3 will sell 1st week in NA cause i wouldnt hesitate to say over 3M

These are not first week sales, these are preorder stats. As I showed before, most sites currently have battlefield 3 360 ahead of mw3 ps3 in preorders in america. While I wouldn't be suprised at all if MW3 for ps3's first week sales in america is twice as high as battlefield 3's first week, currently people are preordering battlefield 3 more than mw3 in every single major US game retailer except walmart. You can't just make up numbers because you "know" what the final week numbers are "suppose" to be. 

You guys also keep bringing up numbers that don't matter for preorders like total sales or first month sales of games. That has nothing to do with preorders. Things that can affect preorders include, hype for a game, bonuses for preorders, the game that annoying gamestop clerk is begging you to preorder because it is in the same genre as the game your about to buy, etc. A game that has two million "hardcore" fans will probably have more preorders than a game that has a fanbase of 10 million who aren't as excited about it.

Preordering gears of war 3 on amazon gets you a $20 giftcard. Preordering battlefield 3 on amazon gets you free dlc. Preordering MW3 gets you an avatar for the 360 version... or wallpaper for the ps3 version... Tell me which game you think will have the lowest preorder to first week ratio if the incentives stay like that. If you aren't getting anything for preordering the game then why would you bother doing it, when you can just pick it up the day it comes out regardless.

Yes the chart has had a handful of completely wrong numbers, such as xbox 360's homefront. But you also need to consider the hundreds of numbers that could be entirely accurate. Doubling your preorder numbers in the first week is nothing crazy at all. Infact I think that its even a somewhat small increase for many games.


Just like there is no ratio for how much a game will sell lifetime based on its first week numbers, there is no preorder to first week ratio. A week may not seem like a huge amount of time for things to drasticly change, but it is. Just compare the percent drops from first week to second week of some games. Sometimes its 10% drop, other times its a 80% drop, some games drop a lot after day one and others hardly drop at all. 

Final thing to consider is that first week sales for some games is only 1 day while for others its a full 7 days. Preorder to first week sales can obviously be affected by that as well.