Now this battle has turned into something that looks a lot like the DS vs. PSP battle, but I think Nintendo actually shot themselves in the foot with the 3DS. If you look at it, there's not really much to tell the 3DS apart from a DSi, functionally at least. You have the analogue slider, the 3D and SpotPass as the only really unique functionality compared to the DSi.
Compared to the Vita, there are a few more selling points, like the dual screen setup, but compared to the DSi, you have some improved controls, improved online and motion controls, all of which can be found with the competition. The Vita has better controls and probably (since we don't know exactly what it will be like) comparable or better online functionality and comparable motion controls. And compared to smartphones, the physical controls and unique online are the only real selling points.
Having tried the 3D briefly, I'm not really sold on it. It didn't do much for the experience and gave me a slight headache, so if I get a 3DS, I'll probably end up turning the 3D of most of the time. So for me, that leaves only one selling point in the hardware and that's SpotPass. I don't consider that much of a selling point at all though, especially since it seems the Vita will have something resembling it with a better online implementation on top of that.
So the 3DS has only three advantages over the competing hardware the way I see it. Price, games and package. Price and games are self explanatory (hopefully), and the package is the total functionality the 3DS holds against any single platform. Nintendo shot themselves in the foot by not including any killer functionality in the 3DS (although they hoped the 3D would be it).
What does all this mean for the Vita? I don't know, but what I do know is that Sony are playing this game much better than Nintendo is.
The Vita is looking like a much more well planned device than the 3DS, and has plenty of functionality to make it distinct from its predecessor while solving many of its problems as well. I don't know if the price will mean the Vita will take a beating, but the hardware combined with a good launch lineup of games, should make the Vita good competition.
And I can't help but feel that Sony have a much better lock on their target audience than Nintendo does. Sony are making slick gaming hardware with the games to appeal to the users they know they are strong with, whereas I feel Nintendo have a greater risk of losing their more casual audience to smartphones. They haven't provided a whole lot of games yet (although they're coming), but I think the Brain Training-crowd is more prone to simply using their phones for gaming.
I'm not sure what Nintendo is trying to do with the 3DS, and it feels like maybe Nintendo aren't sure either. The pricecut allows them to focus more on their "casual" audience, but it still feels like a bit of a skizophrenic effort, and if they don't find a clear target and go for it, they will lose out to smartphones and Vita.
