I think it will do reasonably well (upwards of 2M). There is a lot of hype for this game right now and im sure sony will do a lot more marketing for this game than they did for Ico/SotC. After all, the ps2 was dominant in its era so they didnt need to market and make the 1st two games commercial successes. With this gen and how close all the consoles are, im sure they will market this game as something different to appeal to gamers (kinda the way heavy rain was marketed). Either way, the sales of the Ico/SotC collection should give us an idea.
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