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padib said:
nitekrawler1285 said:
Well we can but we already know what sales a Nintendo console will have if it only has core Nintendo titles (somewhere around 22 to 34 mil  maybe a little higher to account for population growth) 

I don't think a single player FPS compares to Halo at all in anyones mind except maybe yours.  Nintendo just doesn't care about online to make it a competitor and this attitude is part of the reason why I don't see them as able to compete in that software arena.  Nintendo has nothing on Xbox Live and that profitable ecosystem M$ built since day one is a large part of the reason why those online shooters do so well on the Xbox. M$ has claimed America and I don't see Nintendo able to take that back with their mindset about making online games. Especially not with a console that's more expensive, that's only marginally more powerful and probably not as well an implemented online system.

Third Party support is much more interesting to discuss as it's why Nintendo is trying this strategy in the first place and banking on finally get the big boys on their side Because they want sales like this: 
Gears 1:                                                             5.94 mil
RDR:                                                                    4.24 mil
CoD 4:MW:                                                        8.48 mil
AC:B:                                                                   3.61 mil 
Total:                                                                  22.27 mil

MGS4:                                                                 5.22 mil
CoD 4:MW:                                                        5.65 mil
AC:B:                                                                   3.32 mil
RDR:                                                                    4.24 mil 
Total:                                                                  18.43 mil

Not 3rd party sales like this:
Monster Hunter Tri:                                       1.86 mil
Tatsunoko versus Capcom:                            0.54 mil
Mad World :                                                      0.63 mil
Conduit:                                                              0.54 mil (I added the sales of the sequel to be kind)
Castlevania Judgement:                                 0.10 mil
Red Steel:                                                           1.20 mil(1.63 mil if you add the sequel)
Last Story:                                                          0.17 mil
Xenoblade:                                                         0.16 mil  
Total:                                                                   5.63 mil (including RS2 and C2)

I chose the lowest selling CoD, AC, put in RDR instead of GTA.  You can lol all you want to at that.  This comes from a person who would prefer TvC over all those PS360 games I listed(But i prefer MvC3 to TvC). I didn't exagerrate anything.  Nintendo obviously think it's important or they wouldn't be doing what they are.  I just see it as too little too late.  The reason I mentioned GT, Forza, Halo, and KZ is becuase these are more the types of games I see customers of the above 3rd party titles are more likely to check out than SSB, LoZ:TP, MP3.  There is a synergy there.

Let me start by saying, I see your point generally, and I think in general we mostly agree, but it's point by point where I'm not with at all.

1) Nintendo just doesn't care about online to make it a competitor and this attitude is part of the reason why I don't see them as able to compete in that software arena.

You obviously haven't read Nintendo's latest position on Online gaming, and its humble regret that it wasn't more aggressive on it. In the same article I quoted from, Iwata mentions that he will be more aggressive on this (in a very similar way than with the 3rd party thing), so that's one obstacle down.

2) I don't think a single player FPS compares to Halo at all in anyones mind except maybe yours. 

In case you don't recall, when the first Halo came out, its main competitor was Metroid Prime. They were selling very similarly and had similar popularity until the multiplayer aspect of Halo brought it to shine. Again, for that, see point 1). Prior to both those games, Nintendo co-developed both Goldeneye 007 and Perfect Dark, two of the best shooters of the N64 generation. There's room here for Nintendo, you've just lost sight of it and are too in the now. The dev power of Nintendo still exists, they just put it on the backburner during the DiiS gen, and it was more for a philosophical reason than anything else.

3) M$ has claimed America and I don't see Nintendo able to take that back with their mindset about making online games. Especially not with a console that's more expensive, that's only marginally more powerful and probably not as well an implemented online system.

Again, debatable. If Nintendo offers the right games to the core that makes it stand out, I don't see why it wouldn't beat them. I'll say it again, you mentioned it too, how many classics came out this gen? Not many games I wanted to play, not on any console. If Nintendo offers us compelling software for the serious crowd, why wouldn't a fan pay for it? Heck, I got a 3DS for 300$ cause I can see the right trend come up. I'm sure I'll get the games I want and hope as hell I'm not mistaken.

4) This comes from a person who would prefer TvC over all those PS360 games I listed(But i prefer MvC3 to TvC).

But I agree with you, so would I! But the fact of the matter is lots of people like that and you'll definitely agree. Nintendo just needs to make sure to offer that, as well as the other good stuff, and the casual stuff, and they're in for the gold. That's just how I see it.


1. A new initiative doesn't bring them up to snuff immediately.  Sony has been trying for a while to do so and not succeeding I don't see why it would be so easy for Nintendo.  Sony started back in the PS2 days with socom and what not.  PSN was only just profitable this year and maybe not now with the outtage. It generally doesn't happen overnight.  M$ having experience with an operating system and having users connected on PC games for ages has a huge advantage yet it still took them years and lots of red ink and I really doubt that Nintendos first real online initiative is going to ursup them.  

2. I can refer you back to number one as well.  Those N64 releases were Rare titles and they are long gone(Working for M$ now too). Rare made a lot of intersting games with shooting on the N64 like Jet Force Gemini(which I loved) and many other their platformers had many shooter elements.  They still don't have much expertise with online shooters irrespective of their history with good quality shooters. ask Naughty Dog they are quite different beasts.  

3.  It's possible but I don't see it as plausible.  Nintendo is playing catch up here big time.  CoD and GTAV aren't gonna take core users away from their long established social networks(Hell RROD couldn't do that and they don't have to buy a new system to enjoy those games) I don't see the titles that Nintendo plan on doing this with but I will at least wait until E3 before I count it out completely.  I'm not getting my hopes up either though.

4. I understand that you want a great variety of content.  I understand that is the best ecosystem to hope for in anyones eyes.  I just think that it takes a lot of manpower and money to break into to "hardcore" market.  Nintendo is only just starting with their network initiative. They are only just starting with the games too.  With all that work and manpower consumed I just don't see how they are gonna cater to both.  Place that with the core values kinda opposing the expanding audience ones it's a hard rope to walk.  They can't even get out enough of their core franchises often enough to satiate Nintendo fans.  How are they gonna do this?

I really don't feel that I'm underestimating or overestimating any company here.  These are big tasks and it's a very competitive market. More so than it's ever been.  I've been gaming starting with an atari and quickly working my way up.  I prefer PS but i've owned many non PS gaming platforms.  I see the past and am not stuck in the now, I am just acknowledging that this next gen is an uphill battle for all of them.