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I expect the Wii to stop getting Nintendo published games about 4-6 months after the new system.  Third party companies will probably dump a bunch of crap shovelware games 6-12 months after that.  I see a few good third party games on the horizon.  They should focus on getting DQ, The Last Story, and Xenoblades out in all areas asap.  This would lock up the RPG genre for the Wii this year or following year.   That would at least help slumping Japanese sales.  There is still a decent list of games that will be released for the Wii before all is said and done.