WW up April 9th 2011

[Michael-5]

CGI-Quality said:

ethomaz said:

#	GT5	GT4	Week Diff	Cumulative
1	2,344,932	2,523,055	-178,123 (-7.1%)	-178,123 (-7.1%)
2	744,116	1,000,378	-256,262 (-25.6%)	-434,385 (-12.3%)
3	675,112	510,176	164,936 (32.3%)	-269,449 (-6.7%)
4	624,977	326,608	298,369 (91.4%)	28,920 (0.7%)
5	585,254	231,662	353,592 (152.6%)	382,512 (8.3%)
6	312,094	178,044	134,050 (75.3%)	516,562 (10.8%)
7	171,438	137,261	34,177 (24.9%)	550,739 (11.2%)
8	120,100	120,989	-889 (-0.7%)	549,850 (10.9%)
9	91,157	102,768	-11,611 (-11.3%)	538,239 (10.5%)
10	73,757	92,089	-18,332 (-19.9%)	519,907 (10.0%)
11	63,025	80,643	-17,618 (-21.8%)	502,289 (9.5%)
12	52,727	77,354	-24,627 (-31.8%)	477,662 (8.9%)
13	61,928	67,939	-6,011 (-8.8%)	471,651 (8.7%)
14	55,184	60,955	-5,771 (-9.5%)	465,880 (8.5%)
15	37,402	55,236	-17,834 (-32.2%)	448,046 (7.7%)
16	28,972	50,837	-21,865 (-43.0%)	426,181 (7.6%)
17	20,840	42,133	-21,293 (-50.5%)	404,888 (7.1%)
18	22,747	39,438	-16,691 (-42.3%)	388,197 (6.8%)
19	19,441	37,014	-17,573 (-47.4%)	370,624 (6.4%)
20	18,325	32,204	-13,879 (-43.0%)	356,745 (6.1%)
21		35,189
22		33,713
23		32,183
24		30,473
25		30,615
LT	6,123,528	10,610,639

Note. GT4 sold 400 units this week.

For GT5 to fall under GT4 in total WW sales, it would have to sell next to nothing for the remainder of the year, or GT4 will have to have a significant spike somewhere. A 356k lead isn't going to just completely disappear anytime soon.

Edit: Btw, the current WW lifetime for GT5 is 6,123,528, so I adjusted it in my post.

Well in about 4 weeks, GT4 begins to enter it's first holiday season in EMEAA, and although sales remain relatively flat for the next 6 months of GT4's sales, I don't think this will be the case for GT5.

GT5 has proven (and I did predict this) that it's sales are heavily frontloaded and weekly sales are consistantly less then 60% of GT4's sales. If this continues, we should not expect GT5 sales to surpass 9 million lifetime, which is pretty damn good for a PS3 exclusive, and not too bad for a GT game.

However I have proven this to you in the past, and the trend is still holding, so I'm not going to debate it again. Maybe GT5 will see a boost in sales this fall to break this pattern, maybe it won't. At this rate, in about 20 weeks, GT5/GT4 sales should be equal, and after that we should see GT4 separate from GT5.