Let's assume the cut to $150 is real, and mimicked outside the USA in various currencies. What do you expect the Wii baseline to be? In the USA Wii has been $150 before, for brief periods as a loss leader to get store traffic over Christmas. $200 --> $150 is a 25% price cut across the board though.
I'm going to assume Wii stabilizes at 115k / week at $200 until May 15 (60k / 45k / 10k roughly between Americas, EMEAA, Japan).
In the week after the price cut I'm going to say:
- 150k Americas
- 20k Japan
- 100k EMEAA
For the next two weeks (til end of May), hw will decline 10-15% from the initial large lift.
By June, I think figures stabilize at these levels for a couple months (June 1 - Aug 1 at least):
- 110k Americas (60k ish base line currently)
- 14k Japan (9k base line currently)
- 70k EMEAA (45k baseline currently)
Presumably after July, the price cut will begin to wear off, particularly if PS3 / X360 get price cuts but more software will arrive after E3 you have to figure.
Over Nov-Dec we'll likely see another large spike particularly if Walmart / BB etc give away $50 - $75 gift cards with Wii (even if you just want Wii for 2-3 games, it becomes a steal at $175 for a NEW console and three-four games).
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
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