Well, the easiest way to do this is first attempt what Wii will sell in each region. There is no way in hell Wii 2 launches in 2011 - Nintendo doesn't have the software resources, and there is no reason to have it compete against 3DS and Kinect as the hot new thing at least in the West.
In a best case scenario, the numbers for all three systems could be as high as what I show below.
For Wii 2 I'm assuming:
$300, 300 LBP, 300 Euros, 30,000 Yen. Spring (Apr) 2012 launch in Japan, November 2012 launch in the West.
For X720 / PS4:
$350 at launch for each, April - Nov 2013
US 2005-2010 2011 2012 05'-12' 2013-End LTD USA LTD Americas
Wii 34.2m* 6.5m** 5.2m** 45.9m (4.3m / 2.8m / 1.4m / 0.5m) 54.9m ~63m
X360 25.4m 6.2m*** 5.5m*** 37.1m (4m / 2.5m / 1.5m / 0.5m) 45.6m ~53m
PS3 15.4m* 4.5m*** 4.0m*** 23.9m (3m / 1.8m / 0.8m ) 29.5m ~33m
* One year less time in US market.
** Price cut to $150 in May 2011, price cut to $100 ahead of Wii 2
*** Price cut $50 each year for PS3 ($250 / $350 for Move bundle at E3 2011, then $200 / $300 in 2012), and X360 ($150 / $250 in 2011, $100 / $200 in 2012 for X360 standalone / X360 Kinect).
Japan 2005-2010 2011-2012 2013 - LTD JP
Wii 11.2m 2.8m?** 1.5m 15.5m
PS3 6.1m 2.5m?* 2m? 10.6m
X360 1.4m 0.3m? 0.1m? 1.8m
** Assumes two price cuts & DQX
* Assumes only one price cut
Wii / PS3 on the market one year less than X360 again.
Europe 2005 - 2010 2011-2012 2005 - 2012 LTD 2013 - Europe LTD EMEAA LTD
Wii 26.9m 9.5m 36.4m 9m 45.5m 53m
PS3 16.8m 10m 26.8m 14m 40.8m 50m
X360 15.5m 8m 23.5m 8m 31.5m 36m
** Assumes Wii, PS3, X360 price cuts are very effective in 2011 and 2012 since Europeans are screwed on pricing.
PS3 launched in 2007, compared to 2006 for Wii, and 2005 for X360 in Europe, so the 2005-2010 data favors PS3 (16.8m in 46 months) over X360 (15.5m in 62 months) pretty substantially (110k in favor of PS3 / month on average) in Europe. Wii is in between for months (49), and thus sold 26.9m in 49 months. Math is 550k / month for Wii, 365k / month for PS3, and 250k / month for X360 on average rounded to the near 5k.
Americas JP EMEAA World Sellthrough World Shipped
Wii 63.2m 15.5m 53.3m 131m 135m
PS3 33.1m 10.6m 50.3m 94m 98m
X360 53.0m 1.8m 36.2m 91m 94m
Realistically, Wii can probably be anywhere from 115m - 140m yet (it will be trending below PS2 soon on a global basis - starting sometime in 2012 - but PS2 is going to be at 160m or more by the time its done), X360 anywhere from 65m - 95m, and PS3 anywhere from 70m - 100m (135m - 195m for the HD consoles as a whole essentially). PS3 has been trending 40% below the PS2 pace for about a year now, so the question is how high PS2 gets really and whether PS3 can stay at 40% behind. X360 was way off the PS2 pace but has been catching up a bit with the USA / UK reacting strongly to Kinect.
Personally, I think Kinect was enough of a lift to prevent PS3 from trouncing X360 long term but probably not enough to get X360 ahead lifetime, even though it will be ahead most of the race.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
