The Wii doesn't really sell on new software in the USA anymore with a hand full of exceptions, given how big and diversified the base is. The library is broad enough that a price cut, particularly with Mario Kart included, will drive some hardware. I was expecting a cut in April or September, but May 15 is exactly half way through the first quarter of Nintendo's March 2012 fiscal year so it does make sense. In Japan its concievable that a price cut could come even earlier given the slowdown there, possibly as early as Nintendo's earnings briefing on April 25.
Its also been a hell of a long time since a viable / still fairly healthy console could be bought for less than $200 new. PS2 hasn't really been significant in steady game releases since 2006-2007 in the USA, so on the console side, Wii at $150 would be pretty significant for the budget-console gamer.
As far as game releases go, the Wii Play sequel will probably help drive some hardware sales just as Wii Fit Plus helped around the 2009 price cut.
Wii is also way overdue for a player's choice line at some point, given that close to 120 titles will have topped 1 million units worldwide by the time the price cut comes.
In the grand scheme of things, its important to remember that old business figures put NES at 80,000 units in the USA even as late as December 1994 (about what PS2 did in Dec 2010) - and so Wii is probably capable of 1m units even into 2015 or 2016 in the USA given that there are still price cuts to $130, $100, $80, and $50 if Nintendo chooses to really ride out long term. I'm not suggesting Wii core games will continue selling throughout this period, I think 2011-2012 is the end of Wii for that, but the leggy, casual titles will continue to arrive for a couple more years yet given the size of the software market.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
