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It will probably come down to Christmas time, 360 had a huge holiday rush at the end of 2010, I think whoever has the most appealing games/deals/bundles in November and December will edge out the other 2.  Could also come down to whoever has the games that appeal to casual gamers the most, i.e.- the motion control games, we'll see if Kinect or Move have any games that will sell big coming out at that time.