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At latest Nintendo will drop its console successor in 2013. But if they hope to save themselves (at least in Japan), they will need to drop Dragon Quest X by mid 2012 and have roll of pretty decent games to sandwhich that release.

 

If the 3DS does well, Nintendo can survivie on and tolerate flagging Wii sales in Japan, especially since like N64 it seems more popular in the larger market that is the US, but no way could they maintain past 2013, which itself is pushing it. I seriously suspect something out by later 2012.