Americas UP! (5th March 2011)

[Michael-5]

postofficebuddy said:

Michael-5 said:

darthdevidem01 said:

Michael-5 said:

Align PS3 and PSP launches, and look at annual sales. Note I merged PS3 2006 sales into 2007.

Worldwide(millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	8.95	9.92	13.02	14.44
PSP	9.60	9.39	12.36	13.87	10.40	9.30

Americas(millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	3.61	4.66	4.96	5.54
PSP	4.07	3.43	4.17	4.52	2.98	2.27

Okay well PS3 follows PSP trends worldwide, not so closely in Americas, but still. PSP sales droped after 4 solid years, and if PS3 follows PSP sales worldwide, that would mean PS3 sales should drop as well. Already its selling 20% less on a weekly basis, and there is no Move launch to boost holiday sales.

Worldwide PS3 sales for 2011 could be as low as 11-12 million, and in Americas it could be as low as 4-4.5 million.

PS3 is likely to start falling this year. Sales will be a bit stronger then PSP's, but in 2 years Ithink the console will be dying in Americas region, and likely worldwide too.

No MOVE launch but there will be a price cut, and I bet a slimmer model in 2012.

You will see this trend end very soon, this year in fact. PS3 YOY down will be reversed thanks to its price cut in summer or later this year.

You under-estimate the power of a mass market price, never forget PS3 is still expensive relative to other systems.

Why don't you do a PSP/PS3 EMEAA comparison. EMEAA alone might result in this "trend" not happening.

EMEAA (millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	3.66	4.75	6.24	7.35
PSP	3.31	4.11	5.13	5.55	5.13	4.15

 

Japan (millions)	Year1	Year2	Year3	Year4	Year5	Year6
PS3	1.69	1.07	1.83	1.55
PSP	2.22	1.86	3.06	3.80	2.28	2.88

Before making the graphs, I would think Japan is the onle likely to break trends. Also with a price cut, PS3 sales might be on par with 2010, but who is to garentee a major price cut? Since launch PS3's price has dropped 50% already, Wii has only dropped 25%, and it's YoY sales are the most hurt. PS3 is also selling very well this year, a price cut might hurt revenue more then help. Only console we can almost garentee a price cut for are Wii and DS, but not the PS3/360. Although a PS3 price cut is still likely, I'm just saying it's not garenteed.

So you can see EMEAA PS3 sales follow roughly the same trend as PSP. The difference varies from 10.5% to 32.4%, but PS3 should begin to drop soon. 2011 may still be it's peak year, but 2012 sales wll be down.

The original question was will PS3 sales drop as fast in Americas as PSP did? maybe not as much for Year5 (2011) with a price cut, but it probably will come close to PSP levels in Year6 (2012).

I can pretty much say with unequivocal certainty that there will be a price cut this year. It's already getting an indirect one in Japan and there have been rumors of a cut in the west for a while now. And in regards to it trending with PSP, in EMEAA it's going to be much,much better than PSP's year 5. Possibly by as much as 3 million. So no, it's not really trending similarly to PSP in that region. And in Americas it's already trending dramatically ahead of the PSP. It'll probably pass it in actual sales here by the end of the year, despite PSP's year and 3 quarters advantage. Really, the primary reason PSP trended similarly to PS3 worldwide was because it did so much better in Japan. Ironically enough PS3 might actually come close to PSP's year 5 in that region.

I will agree that PS3 will be down next year but probably not nearly as much as PSP was in year 6 compared to year 4. Look at 360, it peaked in year 5 and will probably only be marginally down in year 6 (unless it gets a $100 cut. A $50 cut won't be nearly enough to counter the slim launch and Kinect and it's not building up enough of a YOY lead now while it has the chance)

 

People said they could confirm a Wii price cut in 2010, and it never happened. There is no garentee then any console will have a major price cut, and even if PS3 does get a price cut, it may only be $50, which won't impact the market as extensivly as the PS3 Slim, or X360 price cut in 2008 did.

Also you can't claim future PS3 sales as absolute facts. Please watch how you phrase things. If PS3 outsold PSP sales by as much as 3 million, then it's year 5 sales will be higher then it's year 4 sales in EMEAA. Not only is a 5 year peak ridiculous (I know 360 did it, but that was a rare exception due to Kinect AND a Slim model), but it would mean PS3 sold over 8 million units in EMEAA, and it would imply that it won't follow the PS3-PSP trend. You may feel it will break the trend, but please state that you feel that way instead of speaking with absolutes. The largest deviation from the patturn is in EMEAA, but thats still only 1.8 million, a jump to 3 million would be insane.

In Americas PS3 is not scaling above the PSP significantly. Annually sales differences very from -400k, to 1.3 million. PS3 may outsell the PSP by the end of the year, or early 2012, but if PS3 sales follow the pattern PSP sales did, overall PS3 sales will likely fall within 20% (or 5 million sales) of PSP.

As for 360, it's defying trends. Compared to every other console prior, it's annual sales are more averaged. Instead of a high peak after 2-3 years, like the Wii/PS2 and a gradual fall, 360 seems to be having a gradual rise. Even for 2011, I'm not sure a peak year is out of the question. In 2010 it had slow sales for the first 6 months due to the PS3 Slim taking away a lot of attention, and Kinect cam very late into 2010. With a strong Kinect lineup this fall, a potential (but like I said, not garenteed) $50 price cut, and sales currently tracking 20% above prior year sales, it's annual sales may come very close to 2010's peak. I think we should expect to see this year being 360's second strongest year, if not strongest.

As for PS3, we will have to wait and see. For Americas and WW, PS3 and PSP track similarly. However the differences in WW sales are due to strong PSP sales in Japan, and strong PS3 sales in EMEAA. This trend is by no means a garentee for future sales, just an interesting trend. If PS3 sales do mirror PSP sales, it's a little shocking to think that 2012 Americas PS3 sales may be only 3-4 million, and WW about 10 million. Those figures do make sence, as 10 million WW sales for a console in it's 6th year is a lot, and still makes up for 65% of it's peak year sales.

I've been wrong before, PS3 and 360 selling about 14 million units, shocked me, the jump Kinect and Move did to sales, shocked me, and the fact that the HD consoles are still selling this well is definatly not what I expected when I frst joined VGC.