Michael-5 said:
Price will help boost all console sales, but in different ways and it won't alter how they will sell with respect to one another. If Wii holds 18 million sales due to a price drop (as the trend it's setting this year is downward from 2010), it will sell more then the PS3 and 360. A PS3 and 360 price cut is less likely, but if it does happen it won't boost sales to above 2010 levels. However I have been wrong before, so in the case that it does boost sales above 14-15 million, I still think the Wii will inch past. I think worst case, a price cut in 2011 will make 2011 numbers a repeat of 2010, with 360 and PS3 swiched. Also I don't get your point, I put Wii above PS3 and 360. If you aknowledge that price doesn't matter, why question me? It's hard to read sarcasm in text. I don't mean to whine about it, but I guess people who use one arguement in two contradicting ways annoys you. I'm not like that. |
I'm simply playing on the age old sentiment from the Wii fanbase that price doesn't matter. And then they come along with charts showing the Wii tracking above the PS2 and how the PS2 got the majority of sales at a very low price (allthough this doesn't happen very often any more, its almost as if people have stopped assuming that the Wii will outsell the PS2). Contradictions is what I'm getting at.
I know perfectly well that price matters, if the PS3 and 360 remains significantly above the Wii before anyone cuts the price, who can say that a PS3/360 price drop won't have enough effect to keep things the same way even if the Wii cuts the price as well? A 250$ PS3 and 150$ Arcade 360 should easily nullify any advantage gained by a 50$ Wii price cut, especially since they're both significantly above in weekly sales as is. This may not remain the same throughout the year but we saw the HD consoles outselling the Wii handily last fall, all the way till the holidays kicked in for real. If the Wii starts off slow and gets outsold all the way till fall this year and then continues to get outsold up until the holidays, it will be a whole lot of ground to cover up, especially since the HD consoles' yoy drops will probably be smaller also during the holidays. And who knows what will happen if the HD consoles drop their price even more than 50$? A 199$ PS3 could do extremely well seeing how well its doing as the highest pricepoint of all three right now. The Wii might also drop more than 50$ but a 99$ console is really the sign of someone headed into the next generation in a hurry imo. A scenario where only Nintendo drop the price is unthinkable to me, the others just won't let it steal all those sales, if anything, Nintendo have proven to be most stubborn about price cuts and may even attempt to get by on the same pricepoint for the remainder of the year. They sure as hell don't seem to be doing much to help the situation right now.
A three way price cut will benefit the HD consoles just as much as the Wii and things will remain pretty much what they are now (the Wii won't have any retail advantage against a 150$ base model 360 and it seems unable to outsell the PS3 which is 100$ more costly as is, if the difference remains 100$ there won't be massive changes in weekly numbers imo). Software might help boost the Wii somewhat but the same goes for the HD consoles and there are no huge peripherals on the horizon to favour anyone either (unless Vitality Sensor gets released right before christmas). Also, software has less and less impact on hardware sales the farther into the console lifecycle you go so we won't see anything like the NSMBWii boost ever again this generation.
As it stands now and for the foreseeable future, the Wii is not in a better position than the HD consoles to sell the most units this year, the fact that it has outsold them before has no bearing on the current situation and should only add to the notion that it isn't doing as hot as it could. And, before someone mentions it, this is not one week of lower sales we're talking about, this is the fourth or fifth week of the Wii being below the HD consoles and the gap has grown every one of those week and there is no reason to believe that it (the Wii) will get back on top any time soon all of the sudden. 45% yoy weekly drops are unprecedented, especially in a market leader.
I remember right before the holidays, some people were chanting; "The Wii will not win this holiday season, it needs a price cut to do that!" The other side responded when the holidays arrived and the Wii won; "Lol, see what happens? It doesn't need a price cut!" There were others still, me being among them, who claimed that the Wii would indeed win the holidays but could find itself in a world of trouble when the holidays were past and that this would be significant (of course) for it's overall performance.
I guess time has shown that the first group made asses of themselves (expectedly), the second one were simply stating the obvious for the time (holidays) and the third has yet to be proven wrong or right. 2011 will be the telltale year and will ultimately decide for sure exactly when the next generation starts (and I say it starts in late 2012).
