EMEAA Up

[Michael-5]

CGI-Quality said:

Michael-5 said:

Won't cross 10 million at this rate. GT4 had 51k sales in week 13 for EMEAA, during a slower month, and stronger sales in Japan and Americas. GT5 only had 31k sales in week 13 for EMEAA, about half. GT5 is showing strong signs that it will have weaker legs then GT4, which only just crossed 10 million.

By comparision, Forza 3 only had 20k on it's 13th week in EMEAA (2/3rds GT5). A Year later and a month, it only gained 769k more sales in EMEAA. If GT5 continues to hold 50% stronger sales, we should expect about 1.15 million for EMEAA in about a year. Include Americas and Japan, and sales and they could be between 1.6-1.7 million (using ratios from either total or weekly sales betwen regions).

That should put GT5 between 7.2-7.3 million sales next year, but it won't stop selling after 1 year. However after a year and 3 months, expecting the game to sell 3 million units is unlikely.

But believe what you like.

Note, last week GT5 sold 23k in EMEAA, so my calculated estimate could still be high. Sales by next February could be as low as 6.8-6.9 million. Still, best selling PS3 exclusive, only surpassed by two Call of Duty titles.

Looking at what GT5 has already shipped, I'm not sure of what "rate" you're speaking. GT4 also didn't launch in a frontloaded period, so what it did week 13 in EMEAA is irrelevant. In fact, I'm not sure why you always bring up GT4, I didn't say it would pass GT4 (even though GT4 did 11 million, not just 10), I said GT5 will pass 10 million. Either you haven't been paying attention to Polyphony's figures, or you're ignoring the current rate of things.

Without going through the rest of your post, because it's generally speculation, with 6.37mill shipped as of Dec 2010, GT5 won't have much trouble crossing 10 million, considering it shipped OVER half that within 40 days of being on the market. It's much less my opinion and more simple math. Tell me a franchise/game that shipped such an amount in it's first month that went on to sell less than 10 million in it's life. Answer: it hasn't happened.

I don't want to continue though Michael, I know this will never end if I do, so just take what I said initially as something not generated towards you, but GT5's doubters in general.

Shipped values are irrelevent, you should know that, whatever isn't sold is shipped back. Also GT4 only sold 10.61 million units, and shipped 10.85 million, so for GT5 to break 10 million sales, it would need to sell about 85% as well to break 10 million. It's stabilizing at 66% or so.

Also, you asked me to name game game which shipped 6.4 million in a month, but sold less then 10 million lifetime. Modern Warfare 2 for PS3. Also note, they both were released in the peak holiday sales period.

I only commented about Forza sales being impressive too, you first mentioned 10 million. I made no comparision in my initial post. Just noticed a comment about GT5, and I thought mentioning how Forza 3 is doing would be good.

Anyway I agree lets not go down this road.