PS3 to outship the X360 by the end of the 4th quarter? Oh yeh

[Michael-5]

DonFerrari said:

Michael-5 said:

DonFerrari said:

Michael-5 said:

 

I never said PS3 was overshipped, I'm not part of that band wagon. I'm only claiming that 360's are undershipped at this moment, and that shipped units are not a proper indicator of console sales.

I just don't agree with the notion that an HD console price cut will aid PS3 more. I understand the logic of a $250 PS3 (Realistically, the potential price cut will only be $50), but a $250 Elite 360 should be just as impactful. Arcade 360's never comprimised a large portion of 360 sales. Also a $150 Arcade 360 is pretty appealing as a secondary console for Wii/PS3 owners alike. Who is to say a $150 Arcade 360 won't offset any price cut bonus PS3 would get?

I think we should agree to disagree on the price cut. We simply have different opinions, and until the consoles get price cuts, these are only opinions.

I think we can agree... as i said we can only be certain of the effect when it happen (i just used the previous trend that with the same price cut PS were more benefected than Xbox)... and seing the Kinect effect (my friend bought and i'm still to be tempted to play) i can agree not undershipped - don't now if make senses as you can't sell what hasn't arrived - but certainly in shortages in USA (EMEAA and Japan doesn't sound to be the case)...

But each way maybe for shear brand name or rising in new markets i think the gap will slowly shrink again this year, and by the end o generation PS3 will be probably ahead but nothing to brag about.

I still disagree about the gap shrinking. PS3 is losing to 360 badly in Americas, 360 isn't losing as badly in EMEAA, and Japan is such a small market for home consoles. I think a strong Kinect lineup, and a few good exclusives is all 360 needs to have a strong holiday season, just like it had in 2010. However unlike 2010, I don't see PS3 shrinking the lead during the regular year. The PS3 Slim effect is over, there is no reason why the PS3 should be selling that much differently from 360 right now, and it isn't. Why would PS3 all of a sudden start consistantly outselling 360?

Realistically, the difference between the two HD consoles won't be that different until E3 2011, and if MS pushes Kinect right, it could give 360 stronger sales for 2011. After all Kinect is outselling Wii, the freaken console.

Up untill now PS3 kept shrinking the lead, and yes Americas is Xbox market, Japan shrink in meaning and EMEAA is just a little favorable to PS3... even tough a price cut can help PS3... Kinect isn't making Xbox sells a lot more than PS3 this year.

And at last, there isn't a PS3 Slim yet, you will see a PS Three when that happen (maybe this or next year with more improvements in chip)...

And 2011 lineup of PS3 is better at the moment, hope for a Kinect better lineup isn't more than that, hope.

Thats just completly false. PS3 has only been shrinking the lead for Jan-September 2008, August 2009-June 2010, September-October 2010. Every other period the gap has been growing. In fact, before the PS3 Slim the gap was 8 million, I feel the effect of the PS3 price cut, and slim size have done their damage, it's Kinects turn now.

http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82284/the-vgchartz-gap-charts-monthly-update-for-september-2010/

Also note, the Gap in Americas has always been growing, even after the PS3 Slim launch. So no matter what Sony must have EMEAA Japan Gap > Americas Gap, which will be hard now, and most likely won't be a big difference.

I feel Kinect will push consoles in trends more similar to how Wii games, peripherals and the console sell. If you ever look at Wii Fit sales, you will see that they seriously bulk up in the holidays. Wii Fit Plus sold 3.6 million units in the period between October 2010 and January 1st. That means after it's 1 year anniversary, it sold about 20-25% of it's lifetime sales, and about 35% of it's lifetime sales were in the first holiday season. This means over 6 months it sold 60% of it's inventory, and the other 40% over 10 months in the non holiday period. If Kinect follows this trend, it should sell between a little over 4 million units next November/December alone, which is probably more then most new titles will sell at the time.

Also I've gotten into this debate before, PS3's 2011 lineup is not really any different then MS's. In terms of console pushers, MS likely has more games. Gears of War, Forza, Kinect 2nd wave of games, and rumored Halo/Halo Kinect/Gears Exile will likely push more consoles then Uncharted, Resistance and The Last Guardian this fall.

Also, a second PS3 Slim,....probably won't push as many consoles as the first one did. The first one did well because MS had no slim model and it came as a surprise. The 360 slim didn't push as well because it wasn't as much of a shocker.

Realistically, until E3 2011, the Gap won't change. Sales are almost identical now, with a slight edge to MS. Sony and MS are not offering too many exclusive titles to push (PS3 has Killzone and DC Universe, 360 has some exclusive Brain Challenge game for Kinect, among a handfull of Kinect exclusives). So because of Kinect, for the first time since 2007, Sony won't gain that any lead during the non-holiday months of 2011, and if MS has a stronger fall (which it usually has, and I think is very likely), then 360 will actually outsell the PS3 this year.

I mean last year, PS3 was outselling the 360 by 20k weekly at this point, sometimes more, and at the end of the year the difference was under 1 million. Take away that initial lead, both HD consoles are looking to sell about the same.