VGC Mafia Round 25

[Final-Fan]

noname2200 said:

Final-Fan said:
Honestly, my opinion at this point is that it was more likely one of those "too scummy to actually be scum" situations.  But I could be wrong; and I don't know what else I could say to convince you (or anyone, really) that no, your suspicions are totally valid, it's just that his behavior went so far beyond suspicious that surely nobody actually guilty would be so incautious as to say those things.

In last game's dead thread, I posted that the surviving townies (yourself included) could have caught nen if you guys had taken a step back and stopped overthinking everything. Judging by these posts, you're doing the same thing here: rather than going with what you apparently believe, you're creating a fictional framework of how scum Would Act in a situation, and then checking to see if the observed behavior matches this fictional framework.

I'm not urging you to vote for ABC at this moment, but I am telling you that playing mindgames with yourself is a fantastic way for a townie to lose.

Final-Fan said:
Well, there is one specific thing I want to add:  I think it's less likely ABC lied about his reasoning than that he just didn't remember and made up a reason that seemed to make sense, even though, as you point out, it doesn't.

Isn't your motto usually "lynch all liars," though?

1.  Noted. 

2.  A lie is a deliberate attempt to deceive.  I am not convinced that that is what ABC did.  (Instead of, say, dreaming up a reason that he thinks was probably the reason for his post, even though it was not and makes no sense.) 

Nevertheless, as Republic said, that would mean that even if he's innocent he was pretty damned unreliable, and it's hard to say how much better he is now. 

I'd say if I had to vote for someone, he'd be it right now.  I'm not sure whether I'd prefer that to No Lynch.  Also suspicious:  Wonk, Stefl -- the latter for lurking.