1st Qtr 2011 Shipment Predictions

[postofficebuddy]

Seece said:

NotStan said:

Sony will end up surprising everyone and shipping somewhere no one has ever heard of or is extremely hard to track. The market they have is just too frigging large to be tracked properly, the PS brand is like plague, it's everywhere! Chances are it might be slightly undertracked, not on the scale that some people are suggesting but I'd guess that 11% down is more like in the region of 5 or 7.5.

I don't think 360 will have such a dramatic jump despite being the only console up YoY, chances are it'll ship on par with PS3.

Yeah I agree, sony will make their 2.8.

They're down in all the main markets, Europe, US, UK, Japan ect ect, but Asia and Latin America are keeping them higher than they've ever been. I do wonder if this will spur MS and Nintendo on to start shipping elsewhere.

MS I expect anything in the region of 1.7 - 2.5
Nintendo I expect 2.3 like they expect.

Honestly, it's not just 'misnomer territories that no one can accurately track'. Firstly we already know that PS3 was up YOY pretty significantly in the European territories outside of UK, France, Spain, and Germany.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3890185

And one other major factor to consider that everyone always seems to overlook is Canada. Sony stated back in September that they expect to double their Canadian install base from 1.5 million to 3 million by the end of 2011. Clearly PS3 is selling quite well up there. Especially when you consider the fact that GT5 sold almost half as much first week in Canada as it did in the USA. I'd be willing to bet that PS3 was up quite dramatically YOY there this holiday.

Anyway OT, my prediction is:

360: 2.6 million

PS3: 2.7 million

Wii: 2.3