Will the 3DS sell 300 million+ ?

[Michael-5]

dunno001 said:

Michael-5 said:

As a primary console, the GBA was only around for 3 years. 2001-2004 the GBA was Nintendo's premier handheld. In 2004 the DS came out, which shifts interest. Not many people buy an outdated product, especially when the DS is backward compatible.

Also the DS started at $200, and now it starts at $130, but goes up to $200 with the DSi XL.

Please check your facts. The DS was being outsold by the GBA for most of 2005; DS did not even outsell it regularly until the 2005 holiday season, and the GBA continued to sell about 1 million per quarter through 2006, and sold another 2 million plus in 2007. I would argue that it was a primary console for Nintendo at least through part of 2006. 2005 can not be argued for GBA not being a primary, as that is the year that the GBA Micro launched. Recall also, that initially, Nintendo did not market the DS as a Game Boy line successor- it was instead another portable gaming option. (We see where that went now, though...)

As for pricing, the DS alone was never $200 in the US. (I'm not aware of any official bundles reaching $200, either, but  will concede it is possible there was one.) Launch price of the first DS was $150, and the highest a system reached was $190 for the XL launch, which is now $170, not $200 as you claim.

When I say DS was Nintendo's primary console in 2005 and onward, I mean it was the system Nintendo was primarily putting it's resources into. This is equivalent to how the PS3 was Sony's Primary home console in 2007, even though PS2 still saw GoW2, and Wii also became the primary home Nintendo console then too.

Yes Nintendo did launch a GBA Micro in 2005, but how well did that sell? I think that was an attempt Nintendo made to make the GBA the cheaper handheld, much like the DS will be when the 3DS comes into picture.

To be honest GBA did see some software support in 2005, but it was old tech. However Nintendo probably did share some of DS's spotlight with the GBA in 2005.

I expect the DS to sell at least on par with the 3DS in 2011 despite that Nintendo is releasing it's last wave of first party software in March. April onward, the attention will be focus'ed on the 3DS, but the DS should still sell well especially since it's half the price.

As for $200, I'm probably wrong. I thought the DS launched at $200, and I bought the electric blue DS so I should remember the price. Did GBA launch at $100 then? $250 is a lot for a 3DS, thats why I don't think it will sell 300 million, but with a couple rpice drops 200 million is possible.