I have price cuts for Wii and PS3 ($50 each) in April 2011. Both can justify it with expensive new portable hw releasing that fiscal year.
In the USA for Jan - Dec 2011 Wii / X360 should be around 6-6.5m in 2011, PS3 around 4m, DS around 6-7m. PSP 1m, PS2 irrelevant. Those figures assume price cuts for Wii / PS3.
I don't buy that the Wii lineup is super weak for 2011 - Just Dance 2 is going to sell like crack for at least another quarter (it sold 5m in three months), pushing systems, and we know Zelda is in 2011. That's essentially two quarters covered. Then you have minor stuff to support JD2 in Q1 - De Blob, Mario Sports Mix, and the big games still selling from 2006-2010 mainly DKC, Kirby, NSMB Wii, EA Sports Active 1-2, JD1, JD Kids, Epic MIckey, Galaxy 2 and Goldeneye. THQ put alot of $$ into the Wii Tablet - that thing should get a fair amount of support, at least from THQ, in 2011.
If the weak quarter for Wii content is Q2 2011, because of the 3DS, then thats the ideal time for the Wii price cut. Once 3DS is launched, I figure Rhythm Heaven, Mario Party 9, some of Nintendo's B stuff that is mostly outsourced to smaller companies for development, and then published by Nintendo, will show up in Q3 for Wii.
There should be a ton of dance games released for both Wii and X360 throughout the year as that genre is exploding to keep pushing hw, and actually thats my main issue with Sony in 2011 - no big dance games seem likely to come. I'd also say with PSP2 coming, some of Sony's top teams are just about done with PS3, which might impact the ability of the system to get exclusives in the future as in the USA the long established pattern is main stream / casual / nintendo games do very well on Wii, violent / hardcore games do well on X360 - PS3 is in second place for both types of game here. I'm sure alot of Japanese teams will be moving to 3DS / PSP2 also, as a console hasn't been the top third party market in Japan since 2004 or so. I know personally my interest in the current machines will take a big hit when top Japanese developed games stop arriving en masse and I can't be the only one. I'm also expecting PS3 and Wii to get some ports / to give some ports to PSP2 and 3DS which will help broaden their libraries, as companies experiment more on the portables now.
For the holidays, I figure we'll get two-three EAD games for 3DS and a couple big exclusives from third parties, some major PSP2 content from Sony, Capcom and Konami but little from western developers, Zelda, Just Dance 2, and a couple random B games from Nintendo / third parties for Wii, Gears / RE / Last Guardian / and a couple major projects for PS3 / X360 - but overwhelmingly sequels that won't push hw, except on Kinect / Move which will see breakouts for dancing / fitness and core titles (for Move think Wii in 2 007 when publishers made stuff like Zack & Wiki, Bully, etc) respectively. At $150 / $250 I'd expect Wii / PS3 figures to be pretty flat in Nov - Dec despite dropping slightly overall against 2010.
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