Microsoft and Nintendo hyped their data too. If you look at it spin free though, you come to the following conclusions: DS vs. PSP - PSP sells well when it has great software, despite a high price for a portable - DS, despite hardware shortages and N64/DC like graphics sells because of the innovation it offers consistently and because of its price point. - With that said, North America is the weakest market for the DS, and perhaps the only one where PSP "could" end up ahead in total sales. If Sony actually realized this they would probably lower the PSP price. PS2 vs. GC vs Xbox - Xbox is dead, 360 owners don't seem to care about reverse compatibility - Game Cube is dead, but because of the new audience for the Wii, Gamecube software sales may stay at surprisingly high (compared to Xbox) levels well into 2007. Zelda helps too for GC owners who have since switched to 360 or PS3. GC will never sell 50k in N.A. again though. - PS2 is like a man with an incurable disease who refuses to let go before he spends his last moments living life to the fullest. With a couple high profile games, and PS3 playing PS2 games, PS2 software can do well for at least another year in a couple instances. Not surprising since NES, SNES, and PS1 software still sold fairly well in 1991, 1997 and 2000...Hardware sales drops below 100k by the middle of the year (April-August). Wii vs. 360 vs. PS3 - 360 has a pretty good line up this year for its demographic. But it also has a few titles to draw in new gamers. Oblivion, Gears, sports games, Live, Lost Planet will carry it into the holiday season with sales of like..200k (for February - which is the 4th to the 28, 3.5 weeks) to 400k (October). November, as Halo 3 hype builds, could be around 600k. December - 700k+. Add 20%/sales per month for a $50 price drop, another 100k to end of the year if MGS4 somehow is released for 360 by the end of the year. 360 - (.3 million avg x 9) + (.4)+(.6)+(.8) - 4.5 million sold in 2007 - PS3 has issues. I suspect things will pick up a bit with VF and Sony's new IP's, but unless a few games average around a 9.5+ on www.gamerankings.com, most people will avoid paying $600 (few are buying the 'cheap model'). GTA and Madden help, but 360 offers those as well as exclusives like Halo 3 and Gears of War which appeal to similar types of people. I also think MGS will come out in 2008, not 2007. Sony's new IPs are critical. I don't think many ordinary Americans would pay $600 for Blueray or to play PS2 games. I see sales of 150k-300k for most of the year (Jan-Sept) to 350k (October), 500k (November) and then 600k-800k in December. PS3 - (.25 million x 9) + (.35) + (.5)+(.7) - 3.8 million sold in 2007 - Wii has a potentially great line up. Q1 - Wario Ware, Wii Play, Sonic, SSX Blur, Mario Party 8. Q2 - Super Paper Mario, Mortal Kombat, Heat Seeker Q3 - Madden, Super Smash Brothers Brawl (guessing), Wii brainage/excercise/unique non-game-game, Disaster Q4 - DQ, Mario Galaxy, DDR, new ip These types of games would appeal to many. The price is cheap, and it will either be enough as a standalone console, or a supplemental console (2nd console). Sales were 435k in January. Supply is still constrained, so sales should be steady for awhile, but for the first 9 months I'd expect sales of 350k-550k. October 650k. November - 700k. December 800k-1.2 million. Wii - (.45 million x 9) + (.65) + (.7) + (1) - 6.4 million
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
