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Pineapple on 22 December 2010
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Immortal said:
Pineapple said:

I don't know if the Wii will beat the DS next year. This year, the DS will sell 21-point-something and the Wii 18-point-something. The Wii is likely to see a small drop next year, to 14-18 million. Let's say 16 million for the ease of it.

Is that impossible for the DS? It's likely to see a price reduction at some point next year, so I'd definitely say that it isn't. It's also getting another main-line Pokemon game releasing for it, and that should help sustain its sales.

The GBA had one of its biggest years after the DS launched. I don't see why the DS shouldn't be able to do the same with the 3DS.

I'd also say it's unlikely that the 3DS will sell as much as the DS next year, though. It has some fierce competition from the DS.

Wii = DS > 3DS seems more likely to me. The rest of your prediction seems fine, though.

Are you sure? I see Wii being at about 19.5m and DS around 22m. A price cut and good software (Pokemon BW > all, but that's besides the point since there's been three main games and countless spinoffs on the DS already) are imminent for both consoles next year. Except Wii will get a lot more support and won't have a successor out. I really can't see DS doing very well next year, especially since most of what's known about on 3DS already shrieks "DS, but better".

I think a Nintendo DS price drop to 99 dollars would do wonders. I think "under 100 dollars" is a sweet spot for quite a lot of people.

Pokemon Black/White isn't going to move a lot of DSes in itself. But it's going to keep the DS popular, in the sense that there is still plenty of software labeled "Nintendo DS" that sells loads. The DS hasn't really had new games for years, and it still sold like cupcakes. The evergreen titles on the DS are far more evergreen than the Wii titles. The only Wii title near the evergreen-ness of top the DS evergreens is Mario Kart Wii. And that even started dipping below Mario Kart DS before the bundle.

The DS is fine without new software. The Wii isn't. Next year, Nintendo's focus is going to be the 3DS. Neither of the two are going to get much attention. That's a larger loss for the Wii than for the DS. In addition, the DS is more likely to have a pricecut. The only thing speaking in the Wii's advantage is the 3DS launching, and I'm not sure how much that is going to affect it, as they're going to be in completely different priceranges.

I'd personally go for DS 18 million, Wii 16 million. The 3DS is going to end quite a lot lower that. It starts 4 million behind the other two due to its late launch, for instance. I have a feeling the 3DS is going to see the same kind of supply issues the Wii did, too. I'd guess 10-12 million sold.