The PS3 would need diversity in the game library compared to the 360 to have a chance to outsell it. As long as the offered gameplay experiences of both consoles are pretty much identical, most people will see the PS3 as practically the same console as 360, just 200$ more and less games in the library.
No matter if you like it or not, Microsoft has done a good job in offsetting games Sony has. We have for example:
Forza - Gran Turismo
Halo - Killzone
Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssee - Final Fantasy
Splinter Cell - Metal Gear Solid
Dead or Alive - Tekken
Of course it's debatable which game series are the better ones, but the point is that to the average customer both consoles offer the same type of games. Plus the fact that most 3rd party games go multiplatform and look graphically identically.
So why spend 200$ more for something that doesn't offer more? This is the challenge for Sony.
Home is underway, but it's only the beginning. The PS3 needs much more diversity to the 360 and Live to convince customers that the PS3 is the better choice.Â
Gran Turismo > Forza (by far. I have never even heard of Forza)
Halo > Killzone (Killzone sucked)
Final Fantasy > Blue Dragon, Lost Odysse (Final Fantasy is way better)
Splinter Cell = Metal Gear Solid (both are equally as good)
Dead of Alive = Tekken (both are descent)
All of these games are okay. Except Halo and Metal Gear Solid. Those are outstanding games. Gran Turismo is just your ordinary racing game.