Gran Turismo 5 (America) sales compared to GT4 and GT3

[Michael-5]

Immortal said:

Michael-5 said:

Thats the flaw of forums. Text goesn't reflect tone, I've made the same mistake you have in the past before as well.

The game could sell 9-11 million, which is avergae for GT, it's not impossible. I feel between 7-10 personally. IMO reviews are more important then user base, take Halo 3 vs. Reach for example.

xD, it's confusing.

Anyway, I really don't think it can hit 9-11m now. Not a hater or anything, but after the lower than expected FW, pathetic second week in Japan, etc. despite a holiday launch, I really can't see it having good legs. 7-9m seems about right.

Also, I doubt that Reach is falling behind because of reviews. Fans wouldn't care for them if the game is a good one in the series (which I'm guessing it is) and others really don't see the difference between 91 and 94 on Metacritic.

The userbase at the time does not matter (H3 launches to 15m base, HR launches to 45m), but the overall base does matter for games like this. Halo and Gran Turismo are meant to be the definition of their console's experience; they should be bought by the people who already have the console and those who are going to buy the system some time in the future. Therefore, if the PS3 only reaches a base of 75m versus PS2's 150m, it's going to hurt GT5's sales. When you're talking about smaller franchises, on the other hand, (many that sold better on PS3 than PS2), they do not need to be constant sellers so userbase doesn't really matter.

Oh Reach will likely outsell Halo 3, unless Halo 4, or a Halo remake (343 Studios said they would make a Halo every year), cut off sales. My point was that the user base is 3x as large now, and Reach is only selling marginally better then Halo 3 on a weekly basis. The difference my only be 3 points, but some websites I trust gave Halo 3 a 9.8, and Reach a 9.3. Thats a difference, above 9.5 is like Holy land, few games score that well. Also back when Halo 3 was released, it was the best HD game, period. There was no Killzone, Uncharted 1 and Resistance 1 were only good, nothing special, Modern Warfare didn't jump CoD yet, and Gears just further encouraged 360 and Halo sales.

That last point you make, I'm not sure if I agree. Maybe it works for GT because GT4 and GT2 are essentially GT1 and GT3 with more tracks and cars, but for Halo I just don't see it. I don't think total base matters, Halo 3 made most of its sales within the first year after release, the rest is just trailing. Gears of War 1 for example has only grown 500k in the last 2 years, and thats a tradmark 360 game too. Most Shooters show really strong sales the first holiday season, and then modest sales the next, but after that they just trail, where racers like GT sell at a constant slow rate for years. GT5 will still sell even if a PS3 GT6 comes out because a lot of casual gamers will still pick it up, just getting a good cheap (if GT6 is out) car sim, not knowing much about cars.